Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:13:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa8f4…ff43 other 261 markets active 1h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$77 (-0%) realized −$77 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%13W / 248L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$216per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$17
14 days−$24
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$40
sports 21% −$14
politics 10% −$8
culture 8% −$9
economics 6% −$5
crypto 5% −$7
world 4% −$3
tech 2% −$2
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 72 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 178 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 261 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$77
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses13 / 248
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)261 / 261
History coverage134d
Avg bet$216
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 261 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $62 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $459 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $190 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $535 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $223 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $201 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $136 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $63 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $238 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $591 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $251 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $670 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 15 $425 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $147 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $143 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $157 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $197 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $447 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $263 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $463 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $64 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $296 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $432 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $306 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $354 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $664 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $300 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $265 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $224 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $321 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $487 $0 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $67 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $1,041 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 10 $309 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $613 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $664 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 09 $384 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $638 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $258 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $69 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $368 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $443 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $460 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 04 $196 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $161 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 04 $420 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 03 $149 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $336 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $519 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 31 $72 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $62 1h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $62 2h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $62 11h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $62 13h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $62 14h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $62 15h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $62 16h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $62 18h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $62 23h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $62 25h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $62 27h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $62 28h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $62 29h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $62 30h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $62 33h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $63 34h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $63 36h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $63 37h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $63 39h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $63 40h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $63 42h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $63 43h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $63 2d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $63 2d
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $63 2d
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $63 2d
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $63 2d
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $63 2d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $63 2d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $63 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1400 history records