Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T03:25:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa8f3…e544 sports 748 markets active 2h ago coverage 58d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 57d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$4,504 (+6%) realized +$5,343 · open −$839
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate47%323W / 368L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$97per market
Trades / day47.3pace
Fees−$906est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$7,561now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 58d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% −$2,090
other 18% −$31
politics 4% −$560
crypto 0% −$14
world 0% −$102
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 -1.3% -10.7% 46% 43% -12.7%
≤30d 324 -0.5% -9.9% 48% 46% -10.8%
≤90d 691 -2.1% -11.4% 47% 46% -12.6%
all 691 -2.1% -11.4% 47% 46% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.4% 46% -12.6%
10% ← realistic here -19.9% 45% -20.9%
15% -27.7% 45% -28.6%
20% -34.7% 44% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$101 vs −$94 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$7,561
Realized+$5,343
Unrealized−$839
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses323 / 368
Est. fees paid−$906
Open positions71
Markets (closed)691 / 748
History coverage58d ⚠
Avg bet$97
Trades / day47.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 71 History 691 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? Yes 50¢ 57¢ $665 $752 +$88 (+13%)
Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026? Yes 49¢ 50¢ $663 $682 +$19 (+3%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $666 $452 −$214 (-32%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes 48¢ 42¢ $503 $448 −$55 (-11%)
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes 39¢ 42¢ $252 $274 +$23 (+9%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 58¢ 62¢ $252 $267 +$16 (+6%)
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 80¢ 82¢ $252 $260 +$8 (+3%)
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $252 $255 +$3 (+1%)
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Yes 25¢ 26¢ $252 $255 +$3 (+1%)
Blue wave in 2026? Yes 72¢ 73¢ $249 $252 +$2 (+1%)
Will Brazil reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $252 $250 −$3 (-1%)
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $251 $249 −$2 (-1%)
Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? Yes 37¢ 34¢ $252 $228 −$24 (-9%)
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 20¢ $50 $139 +$89 (+179%)
Will United States be the furthest advancing host nation at the World Cup? Yes 41¢ 52¢ $101 $126 +$25 (+25%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5 Under 48¢ 60¢ $101 $126 +$25 (+25%)
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? Yes 39¢ 40¢ $116 $120 +$3 (+3%)
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? Yes 59¢ 68¢ $100 $116 +$15 (+15%)
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 24¢ 54¢ $50 $112 +$62 (+123%)
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 6¢ $50 $106 +$56 (+112%)
Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? No 18¢ 18¢ $101 $98 −$3 (-3%)
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 47¢ 80¢ $52 $87 +$36 (+69%)
Spread: Saskatchewan Roughriders (-5.5) Toronto Argonauts 69¢ 56¢ $104 $84 −$20 (-19%)
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $113 $82 −$31 (-27%)
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 63¢ 100¢ $50 $80 +$30 (+59%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 93 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $52 −$56 -107%
Will Nancy Mace win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primar Jun 27 $256 −$256 -100%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $101 +$259 +257%
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 Jun 26 $102 −$102 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 26 $101 −$101 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 Jun 26 $101 −$101 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 Jun 26 $100 −$100 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $100 −$34 -34%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $101 −$101 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $101 +$119 +117%
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 26 $101 +$129 +127%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 Jun 26 $101 +$94 +92%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $102 +$93 +92%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Jun 25 $101 −$101 -100%
Edmonton Elks vs. Winnipeg Blue Bombers: O/U 54.5 Jun 25 $102 −$102 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 Jun 25 $102 −$102 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5 Jun 25 $68 +$1 +1%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $102 +$158 +156%
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 Jun 25 $102 +$83 +82%
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 Jun 25 $104 −$103 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $101 +$129 +127%
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $52 +$18 +35%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 25 $101 +$88 +87%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 25 $101 +$89 +89%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5 Jun 25 $101 +$114 +112%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 24 $100 +$100 +100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 Jun 24 $102 −$102 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 24 $101 −$101 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 24 $103 −$103 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 Jun 24 $102 +$98 +96%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 24 $101 +$114 +113%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 24 $101 +$129 +127%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 Jun 24 $102 +$98 +96%
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 Jun 24 $103 −$103 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 24 $101 +$79 +79%
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets Jun 23 $103 −$103 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 23 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $101 −$101 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $100 +$375 +374%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 Jun 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 23 $101 +$89 +89%
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets Jun 23 $101 +$9 +9%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 23 $101 +$114 +113%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 23 $102 +$83 +82%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $101 −$101 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 22 $101 −$101 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 48¢ $66 1h
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 57¢ $103 1h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 48¢ $36 1h
Spread: Saskatchewan Roughriders (-5.5) BUY Toronto Argonauts 72¢ $36 1h
Spread: Saskatchewan Roughriders (-5.5) BUY Toronto Argonauts 69¢ $35 1h
Spread: Saskatchewan Roughriders (-5.5) BUY Toronto Argonauts 67¢ $34 1h
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 55¢ $0 3h
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 55¢ $56 3h
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 55¢ $38 3h
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 55¢ $7 3h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 44¢ $101 4h
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 52¢ $1 4h
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 52¢ $101 4h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 49¢ $100 4h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $101 5h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 27¢ $66 8h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 42¢ $27 11h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 42¢ $2 11h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 42¢ $29 11h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 42¢ $36 11h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 42¢ $6 11h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 40¢ $100 12h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 42¢ $97 28h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 42¢ $3 28h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 52¢ $101 28h
Edmonton Elks vs. Winnipeg Blue Bombers: O/U 54.5 BUY Over 55¢ $102 28h
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 56¢ $27 28h
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 56¢ $6 28h
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 56¢ $12 28h
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5 SELL Under 55¢ $69 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,561.30 · official $7,561.32 (match) · 3500 history records