Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:38:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa8f3…7de3 crypto 176 markets active 1h ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
Total PnL −$147 (-13%) realized −$168 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate51%88W / 84L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$5
14 days+$3
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 67% −$90
sports 25% −$36
weather 4% −$37
finance 3% −$7
other 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +9.7% -0.7% 68% 42% -3.1%
≤30d 40 -3.0% -12.3% 52% 40% -12.7%
≤90d 172 -8.3% -17.0% 51% 41% -23.6%
all 172 -8.3% -17.0% 51% 41% -23.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.0% 41% -23.6%
10% -25.0% 37% -30.9%
15% -32.2% 28% -37.6%
20% -38.9% 24% -43.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$168
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses88 / 84
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions4
Markets (closed)172 / 176
History coverage58d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 172 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? No 72¢ 72¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? No 80¢ 80¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Up 45¢ 100¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+122%)
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET Down 40¢ 100¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+150%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Down 66¢ 82¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+24%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Up 42¢ 13¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-69%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Up 26¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +117%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$2 -32%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +54%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET Jun 15 $13 +$8 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +22%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +164%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +14%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 01 $5 −$2 -40%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May? May 22 $2 +$1 +58%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 21 $2 $0 -22%
Solana Up or Down - May 21, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET May 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET May 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 21, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7AM ET May 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 21, 7AM ET May 21 $4 +$3 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET May 21 $2 +$2 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET May 21 $1 +$1 +75%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 21 $5 −$2 -37%
XRP Up or Down - May 20, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET May 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 20 $4 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 20 $3 +$1 +43%
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 20 $3 −$1 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 20 $4 +$3 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 20 $4 +$2 +45%
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 20 $3 +$3 +92%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $3 $0 -2%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET May 15 $1 +$1 +127%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET May 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET May 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET May 15 $2 +$1 +27%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET May 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET May 15 $2 +$2 +104%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 12PM ET May 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 11AM ET May 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET May 15 $4 −$3 -72%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 10AM ET May 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 80¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $2 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 1h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY No 72¢ $5 1h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY No 72¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $4 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $4 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $4 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $2 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $4 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $3 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $2 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.69 · official $26.69 (match) · 444 history records