Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:30:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa8f3…8845 world 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 288d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$1 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate33%12W / 24L
Drawdown89%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% −$2
politics 18% $0
other 14% $0
sports 11% $0
crypto 6% +$1
tech 6% $0
culture 6% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 13 -0.2% -9.7% 31% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 13 -0.2% -9.7% 31% 0% -9.7%
all 36 +0.1% -9.5% 33% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

288d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized+$1
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses12 / 24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage288d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown89%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 40¢ 38¢ $36 $35 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $36 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $36 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $34 −$1 -2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $34 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $3 $0 -5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 09 $33 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $37 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $37 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 06 $37 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $2 $0 +3%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $18 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $36 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September? Oct 02 $32 $0 +1%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 23 $30 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 1,750,000-2,000,000 people? Sep 22 $1 $0 -2%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Sep 22 $31 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Sep 21 $31 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $135K in September? Sep 21 $31 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 19 $31 $0 +0%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 19 $27 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $103K in September? Sep 19 $4 $0 +6%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 19 $31 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 18 $31 $0 +0%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Sep 18 $31 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 18 $31 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 17 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Sep 16 $30 $0 +1%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Saudi Arabia? Sep 16 $31 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 16 $31 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Sep 16 $30 $0 +1%
Will Zuriel Oduwole win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 15 $31 $0 +0%
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 13 $31 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? Sep 13 $31 $0 -0%
Will Drake be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Sep 09 $31 $0 +0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 08 $32 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $36 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 73¢ $36 7d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 73¢ $36 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $36 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $36 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $33 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $27 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $7 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $34 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $34 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 10d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 13d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 13d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 76¢ $33 13d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 76¢ $33 13d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 33¢ $7 13d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 33¢ $17 13d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 33¢ $14 13d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 33¢ $37 13d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $37 15d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $37 15d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $37 16d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $37 16d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 17d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 17d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 17d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 17d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 45¢ $18 17d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $18 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.03 · official $35.03 (match) · 94 history records