Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T03:54:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A8
0xa8f2…6504
sports · 28 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$6 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$6 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$14
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses8 / 19
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)27 / 28
History coverage2d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day22.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 27 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$6
14 days+$6
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 46¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Down $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Adrian Mannarino vs. Alex de Minaur: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 54¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Over 48¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Monte $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 44¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score No 31¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Down 32¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Spurs 10¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Mattia Bellucci 33¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Up $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Monte 14¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Set Handicap: Bublik (-1.5) vs Fritz (+1.5) Bublik 59¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Down $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Frances Tiafoe Frances Tiafoe 48¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$17 +522%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $8 −$8 -98%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 13 $15 +$22 +146%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $18 +$16 +86%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Enrico Dalla Valle Jun 13 $19 +$34 +175%
Adrian Mannarino vs. Alex de Minaur: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $17 −$17 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $25 −$13 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Alexander Bublik vs. Taylor Fritz: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $15 +$11 +71%
Set Handicap: Bublik (-1.5) vs Fritz (+1.5) Jun 13 $12 −$12 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $17 +$25 +145%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $21 +$31 +145%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $9 −$9 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $16 −$16 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 12 $16 −$16 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $18 +$17 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 84% +$38
crypto 16% −$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $14 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $20 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $3 21m
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 10¢ $3 29m
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 48¢ $8 1h
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY FURIA 40¢ $15 10h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $18 12h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Monte $3 12h
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Enrico Dalla Valle SELL Jesper de Jong 57¢ $54 12h
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Enrico Dalla Valle BUY Jesper de Jong 20¢ $19 13h
Adrian Mannarino vs. Alex de Minaur: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 54¢ $17 13h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner SELL Monte 24¢ $12 14h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY Monte 47¢ $25 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $15 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $9 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $5 14h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY Monte 14¢ $5 14h
Alexander Bublik vs. Taylor Fritz: Total Sets O/U 2.5 SELL Under 2.5 99¢ $26 15h
Alexander Bublik vs. Taylor Fritz: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 57¢ $15 15h
Set Handicap: Bublik (-1.5) vs Fritz (+1.5) BUY Bublik 59¢ $12 15h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $42 24h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 40¢ $17 25h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $52 25h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 44¢ $15 27h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $21 27h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY No 31¢ $9 31h
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz BUY Mattia Bellucci 33¢ $16 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-25.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -17.4% -25.3% 30% 30% -7.6%
≤30d 27 -17.4% -25.3% 30% 30% -7.6%
≤90d 27 -17.4% -25.3% 30% 30% -7.6%
all 27 -17.4% -25.3% 30% 30% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover22.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.3% 30% -7.6%
10% ← realistic here -32.4% 30% -16.5%
15% -38.9% 30% -24.5%
20% -44.9% 30% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.85 · official $13.85 (match) · 42 history records