Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T02:07:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa8f1…fee6 crypto 575 markets active 0h ago coverage 24d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 23d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (122 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$8,325 (-11%) realized −$8,316 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate52%288W / 263L
Whale WR76%big bets
Drawdown62%max
Avg bet$131per market
Trades / day122.4pace
Fees−$563est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$135now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 24d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% +$7,743
crypto 21% −$1,249
world 4% −$1,223
politics 1% −$218
other 1% −$304
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (122 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-29.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 332 -7.0% -15.9% 64% 42% -20.1%
≤30d 551 -21.8% -29.2% 52% 38% -3.7%
≤90d 551 -21.8% -29.2% 52% 38% -3.7%
all 551 -21.8% -29.2% 52% 38% -3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover122.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -29.2% 38% -3.7%
10% ← realistic here -36.0% 28% -13.0%
15% -42.2% 19% -21.4%
20% -47.9% 12% -29.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 76% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -30% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$64 vs −$53 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$135
Realized−$8,316
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses288 / 263
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Est. fees paid−$563
Open positions4
Markets (closed)551 / 575
History coverage24d ⚠
Avg bet$131
Trades / day122.4
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 551 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 Over 80¢ 78¢ $127 $123 −$4 (-3%)
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $12 $6 −$6 (-50%)
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score Yes 59¢ 72¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+23%)
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 3.5 Over 36¢ 55¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+51%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Both Teams to Score AND Tunisia vs. Netherlan Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Jun 26 $43 −$43 -100%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) AND Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $50 −$50 -100%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Both Teams to Score AND Tunisia vs. Netherlan Jun 26 $9 −$9 -100%
Japan vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 2.5 AND Japan vs. Sweden: Japan O/U 0.5 A Jun 26 $22 +$5 +23%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 AND Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 AND Wil Jun 26 $13 +$3 +21%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 AND Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AN Jun 26 $61 +$15 +24%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 AND Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AN Jun 26 $3 +$1 +28%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 AND Japan vs. Sweden: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 AND W Jun 26 $126 +$19 +16%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 AND Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2. Jun 26 $225 +$49 +22%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 AND Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 AND Wil Jun 26 $40 +$10 +25%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 AND Japan vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND W Jun 26 $17 +$5 +29%
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score AND Japan vs. Sweden: B Jun 26 $31 +$9 +27%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 AND Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 1.5 AND Jap Jun 26 $46 +$21 +46%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 AND Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 AND Jap Jun 26 $8 +$2 +24%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 AND Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $5 +$4 +87%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 AND Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 AND J Jun 26 $87 +$13 +15%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 AND Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 AND Jap Jun 26 $52 +$20 +38%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 AND Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score AN Jun 26 $5 +$1 +25%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 AND Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U Jun 26 $75 +$19 +25%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 AND Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score AN Jun 26 $96 +$15 +15%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 AND Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 1. Jun 26 $5 +$1 +30%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) AND Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score A Jun 26 $70 +$30 +42%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Jun 26 $6 +$2 +33%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 1.5 AND Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 AND T Jun 26 $15 +$4 +30%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) AND Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $7 +$5 +68%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Both Teams to Score AND Paraguay vs. Australi Jun 26 $33 +$5 +15%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 AND Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Both Tea Jun 26 $26 +$5 +19%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) AND Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 AND Tunisia v Jun 26 $39 +$5 +12%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $8 +$8 +101%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 8.5 Jun 26 $40 −$40 -100%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 1st Half O/U 2.5 AND Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Jun 26 $28 +$5 +18%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 1st Half O/U 2.5 AND Netherlands leading at h Jun 26 $28 +$5 +17%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score AND Ecuador vs. Germany Jun 26 $58 −$58 -100%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $58 +$65 +112%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $12 +$5 +43%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $17 +$2 +10%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $5 +$5 +94%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score AND Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U Jun 25 $206 −$206 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $39 −$1 -3%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 1.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-2 Jun 25 $4 +$5 +113%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 AND Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 5. Jun 25 $83 +$17 +21%
Germany to score first vs. Ecuador? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-25 Jun 25 $2 +$2 +132%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador O/U 0.5 AND Will Ecuador vs. Germany end Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 AND Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $21 −$21 -100%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 1.5 AND Germany to score first vs. Ec Jun 25 $6 +$5 +88%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? AND G Jun 25 $39 +$15 +38%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 AND Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $157 +$67 +43%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 AND Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $5 +$2 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 80¢ $128 5m
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 AND Türkiye vs. United States: Both Te BUY 63¢ $254 38m
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 AND Türkiye vs. United States: Türkiye BUY 63¢ $9 51m
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $122 1h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 1.5 AND Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 AND T BUY 77¢ $15 1h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $18 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 AND Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AN BUY 78¢ $3 1h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 AND Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 AND Wil BUY 84¢ $69 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 99¢ $18 2h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $10 2h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 32¢ $1 2h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 32¢ $3 2h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 36¢ $4 2h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $8 2h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $5 2h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Tunisia vs. Netherlands: BUY 75¢ $6 2h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $4 2h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 1st Half O/U 2.5 AND Netherlands leading at h BUY 85¢ $28 2h
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score AND Japan vs. Sweden: B BUY 79¢ $31 2h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $10 2h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 AND Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Both Tea BUY 84¢ $26 2h
Japan vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 2.5 AND Japan vs. Sweden: Japan O/U 0.5 A BUY 81¢ $22 2h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 AND Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score AN BUY 80¢ $5 2h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 AND Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AN BUY 81¢ $61 2h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 4¢ $40 2h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 AND Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to S BUY 68¢ $4 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 38¢ $37 2h
Paraguay vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score AND Tunisia vs. Netherland BUY 80¢ $31 2h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $0 2h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $10 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $134.78 · official $2,376.73 · 3500 history records