Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:28:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa8ec…659e sports 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$37 (-9%) realized +$12 · open −$49
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip
Net edge-100%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$244now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% −$49
crypto 26% −$6
other 25% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-100.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -100.0% 0% -100.0%
10% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
15% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
20% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$1 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$244
Realized+$12
Unrealized−$49
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 1
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? No 81¢ 85¢ $100 $105 +$5 (+5%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 24? Yes 85¢ 81¢ $100 $95 −$5 (-5%)
Counter-Strike: Alpha Dominion Nation vs Alpha Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group C Alpha Gaming 35¢ 16¢ $93 $44 −$49 (-53%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Alpha Dominion Nation vs Alpha Gaming (BO3) - United21 BUY Alpha Gaming 25¢ $44 1h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $101 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 85¢ $101 1h
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Total Corners AND Will Bosnia an BUY 48¢ $102 1h
Counter-Strike: Alpha Dominion Nation vs Alpha Gaming (BO3) - United21 BUY Alpha Gaming 55¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $243.69 · official $343.69 · 7 history records