Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T21:21:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
A8 0xa8ec…cc78 tech 10 markets active 5d ago coverage 86d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$6 (+23%) realized +$2 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate100%8W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 39% +$1
politics 20% $0
economics 20% $0
world 10% +$3
sports 12% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-2.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +1.9% -7.8% 100% 0% -7.6%
≤30d 2 +1.9% -7.8% 100% 0% -7.6%
≤90d 7 +9.4% -1.0% 100% 14% -0.5%
all 8 +8.3% -2.0% 100% 12% -1.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.0% 12% -1.9%
10% -11.4% 12% -11.3%
15% -19.9% 12% -19.9%
20% -27.8% 12% -27.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 87% · top 2 91% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% too few recent
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses8 / 0
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)8 / 10
History coverage86d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Yes 35¢ 97¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+181%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? Yes 27¢ 60¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+124%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $3 $0 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $1 $0 +2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 11 $1 $0 +5%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 22 $3 +$2 +54%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will Park Chan-dae win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election? Apr 14 $5 $0 +1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 08 $1 $0 +2%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 18 $4 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.30 · official $18.29 (match) · 14 history records