Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T08:22:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
A8 0xa8ea…d3f7 crypto 12 markets active 3h ago coverage 169d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$247 (-16%) realized −$321 · open +$74
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%6W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$129per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$168now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 169d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% −$197
other 14% −$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+2.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 10 +12.9% +2.1% 60% 60% -29.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.1% 60% -29.6%
10% -7.6% 60% -36.3%
15% -16.6% 60% -42.5%
20% -24.7% 50% -48.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 58% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$80 vs −$201 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

169d coverage
Net worth$168
Realized−$321
Unrealized+$74
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses6 / 4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)10 / 12
History coverage169d
Avg bet$129
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $94 $168 +$74 (+79%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Up 25¢ 50¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+102%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jan 06 $280 −$280 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jan 06 $180 +$97 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jan 06 $94 +$89 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jan 06 $50 +$40 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jan 06 $20 +$34 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jan 06 $400 −$400 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jan 06 $200 +$185 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jan 06 $100 +$38 +38%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 Jan 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 Jan 04 $120 −$120 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $168.21 · official $167.87 (match) · 26 history records