Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:25:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
A8 0xa8e9…24fb crypto 16 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$163 (+56%) realized +$155 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR73%break-even
Win rate80%12W / 3L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day28.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$163
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +73%
net ROI/market (all)+19.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +32.0% +19.4% 80% 73% +40.1%
≤30d 15 +32.0% +19.4% 80% 73% +40.1%
≤90d 15 +32.0% +19.4% 80% 73% +40.1%
all 15 +32.0% +19.4% 80% 73% +40.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +19.4% 73% +40.1%
10% ← realistic here +8.0% 67% +26.7%
15% -2.4% 47% +14.5%
20% -12.0% 33% +3.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 78% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +55% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +32% · $-wt +55% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +83% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$19 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.73 per $1 lost it wins $3.73
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized+$155
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses12 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage1d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day28.0
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Up 53¢ 94¢ $10 $18 +$8 (+78%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$7 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 21 $25 +$9 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 21 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 21 $56 +$16 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$4 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 21 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 21 $67 +$109 +164%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$54 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$5 +105%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $25 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.83 · official $9.91 · 44 history records