Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:50:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa8e8…2c0e sports 920 markets active 1d ago coverage 128d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 127d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,661 (-4%) realized −$2,662 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate39%361W / 557L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day21.5pace
Fees−$255est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$23now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$886
7 days+$970
14 days+$461
30 days+$294
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% −$1,849
other 29% −$145
politics 1% −$331
world 0% +$266
culture 0% +$34
economics 0% +$2
tech 0% +$10
crypto 0% −$4
finance 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +113.7% +93.3% 46% 38% +56.5%
≤30d 233 -26.8% -33.8% 19% 14% -7.6%
≤90d 627 -12.5% -20.9% 36% 29% -14.2%
all 918 -7.2% -16.0% 39% 34% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.0% 34% -12.5%
10% ← realistic here -24.1% 27% -20.9%
15% -31.4% 21% -28.5%
20% -38.1% 17% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$32 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$23
Realized−$2,662
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses361 / 557
Est. fees paid−$255
Open positions2
Markets (closed)918 / 920
History coverage128d ⚠
Avg bet$67
Trades / day21.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 918 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 13¢ 12¢ $13 $12 −$0 (-4%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $9 $11 +$2 (+21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 376 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $160 +$40 +25%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $54 +$846 +1564%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $81 +$219 +270%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $79 +$21 +27%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $62 −$62 -100%
Will Portugal vs. Nigeria end in a draw? Jun 11 $132 −$32 -24%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $200 $0 -0%
Will Costa Rica win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $312 −$12 -4%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $84 +$16 +19%
Will Hungary vs. Kazakhstan end in a draw? Jun 10 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Kazakhstan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Russia vs. Trinidad and Tobago end in a draw? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Philippines vs. Myanmar end in a draw? Jun 09 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Myanmar win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Azerbaijan vs. San Marino end in a draw? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trinidad and Tobago win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Moldova win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Northern Ireland win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $111 −$11 -10%
Will France win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $100 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 08 $52 −$52 -100%
Will France vs. Northern Ireland end in a draw? Jun 08 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Guatemala win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Andorra win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Ecuador vs. Guatemala end in a draw? Jun 07 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Kosovo vs. Andorra end in a draw? Jun 07 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Ukraine win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Liechtenstein vs. Cyprus end in a draw? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Liechtenstein win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Kosovo win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $17 −$17 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Cayman Islands win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $112 −$12 -11%
Will Albania vs. Luxembourg end in a draw? Jun 06 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Gibraltar vs. Cayman Islands end in a draw? Jun 06 $12 −$12 -100%
Will El Salvador win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $16 −$16 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $33 −$33 -100%
Will England vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 06 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Chile win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Gibraltar win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Finland win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $72 −$72 -100%
Will Hong Kong SAR win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $122 −$22 -18%
Will Burkina Faso win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $15 −$15 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 05 $101 −$1 -1%
Will Montenegro win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Moldova vs. Bulgaria end in a draw? Jun 05 $2 $0 -1%
Will Singapore vs. China PR end in a draw? Jun 05 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Singapore win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $19 −$19 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 80¢ $4 33h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 80¢ $19 33h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 80¢ $56 33h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 80¢ $80 33h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 44h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 44h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 44h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 44h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 46h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 46h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 46h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $12 46h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $12 46h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 2d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 2d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 2d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 2d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 2d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 2d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 2d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 2d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 2d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 3d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 3d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $27 4d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $27 4d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $27 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 4d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 10¢ $12 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.25 · official $23.25 (match) · 3500 history records