Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:43:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa8e8…3680 crypto 95 markets active 2h ago coverage 160d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,170 (-6%) realized −$1,170 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate81%77W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$216per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$67est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$398
7 days−$458
14 days−$379
30 days−$313
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 71% −$617
sports 23% −$424
other 6% −$119
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -33.1% -39.5% 40% 40% -49.2%
≤30d 7 -8.8% -17.5% 57% 57% -30.5%
≤90d 15 -9.4% -18.0% 60% 53% -20.0%
all 95 -3.0% -12.3% 81% 22% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 22% -14.6%
10% -20.7% 14% -22.8%
15% -28.3% 11% -30.3%
20% -35.4% 7% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$164 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

160d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,170
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses77 / 18
Est. fees paid−$67
Open positions0
Markets (closed)95 / 95
History coverage160d
Avg bet$216
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 95 Trades
no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $102 +$54 +53%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $203 −$196 -97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $331 −$255 -77%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $187 −$184 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $224 +$124 +55%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $202 +$78 +39%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $102 +$66 +65%
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 1.5 May 20 $348 +$129 +37%
Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 2.5 May 19 $302 −$300 -99%
Everton FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 3.5 May 04 $584 −$581 -100%
Arsenal FC vs. Fulham FC: O/U 3.5 May 02 $680 +$210 +31%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 30 $546 −$25 -5%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 29 $800 +$100 +12%
Manchester United FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 3.5 Apr 27 $448 +$41 +9%
Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 3.5 Apr 21 $326 +$115 +35%
Aston Villa FC vs. Lille OSC: O/U 1.5 Mar 20 $246 +$350 +142%
AS Roma vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 2.5 Mar 19 $240 −$240 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 3AM ET Jan 19 $9 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 2AM ET Jan 19 $9 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 4AM ET Jan 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 7PM ET Jan 19 $20 −$20 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 18, 12PM ET Jan 18 $38 −$33 -87%
Solana Up or Down - January 17, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jan 17 $5 +$6 +118%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-17? Jan 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 4PM ET Jan 16 $29 +$6 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 2PM ET Jan 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 10AM ET Jan 16 $49 +$28 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 16? Jan 16 $89 −$77 -86%
Solana Up or Down - January 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jan 15 $9 +$40 +426%
XRP Up or Down - January 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jan 15 $391 −$388 -99%
XRP Up or Down - January 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jan 15 $12 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jan 15 $40 +$10 +27%
Solana Up or Down - January 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jan 15 $125 +$7 +5%
Solana Up or Down - January 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jan 14 $28 −$28 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 14, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jan 14 $244 +$36 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jan 14 $277 −$277 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jan 14 $274 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jan 14 $274 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jan 14 $269 +$11 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jan 14 $274 +$6 +2%
Solana Up or Down - January 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jan 14 $277 +$3 +1%
XRP Up or Down - January 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jan 14 $277 +$3 +1%
XRP Up or Down - January 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jan 14 $250 +$29 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jan 14 $258 +$14 +5%
XRP Up or Down - January 14, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jan 14 $277 +$3 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 14, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jan 14 $209 +$9 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jan 14 $274 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jan 14 $272 +$8 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jan 14 $274 +$6 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jan 14 $266 +$14 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 72¢ $156 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $102 7h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $7 8h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 57¢ $203 8h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 13¢ $76 9h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 55¢ $167 9h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 54¢ $164 9h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 46¢ $175 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 46¢ $12 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 87¢ $348 4d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 56¢ $224 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 87¢ $55 7d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 87¢ $166 7d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 87¢ $4 7d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 87¢ $56 7d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $202 7d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? SELL Yes 53¢ $169 21d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 31¢ $102 21d
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 80¢ $477 31d
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $301 31d
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $1 31d
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $46 31d
Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 74¢ $302 32d
Everton FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 83¢ $584 47d
Arsenal FC vs. Fulham FC: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 89¢ $354 49d
Arsenal FC vs. Fulham FC: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 89¢ $445 49d
Arsenal FC vs. Fulham FC: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 89¢ $4 49d
Arsenal FC vs. Fulham FC: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 89¢ $22 49d
Arsenal FC vs. Fulham FC: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 89¢ $64 49d
Arsenal FC vs. Fulham FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 68¢ $674 49d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 412 history records