Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:46:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa8e6…d471 sports 134 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$12,189 (-3%) realized −$12,981 · open +$792
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate58%77W / 56L
Whale WR59%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,765per market
Trades / day41.9pace
Fees−$4,034est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$1,485now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6,044
7 days−$42,010
14 days−$14,955
30 days−$14,304
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$12,362
other 0% −$1,150
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 57 -15.8% -23.8% 51% 51% -26.0%
≤30d 133 +2.7% -7.1% 58% 58% -13.0%
≤90d 133 +2.7% -7.1% 58% 58% -13.0%
all 133 +2.7% -7.1% 58% 58% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.9 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.1% 58% -13.0%
10% -16.0% 58% -21.4%
15% ← realistic here -24.1% 50% -29.0%
20% -31.6% 44% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 59% (≥$3,185) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +9% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,673 vs −$2,555 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$1,485
Realized−$12,981
Unrealized+$792
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses77 / 56
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Est. fees paid−$4,034
Open positions1
Markets (closed)133 / 134
History coverage14d
Avg bet$2,765
Trades / day41.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 133 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
O/U 4.5 Rounds Under 47¢ 100¢ $694 $1,485 +$792 (+114%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 53 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, Jun 21 $619 −$605 -98%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 21 $498 −$490 -98%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 21 $585 +$615 +105%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 20 $671 +$829 +124%
UFC Fight Night: Andre Fili vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Featherweight, Main Jun 20 $429 −$420 -98%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner Jun 20 $288 +$131 +46%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P Jun 20 $979 −$969 -99%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $857 +$409 +48%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,169 −$1,150 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5 Jun 19 $503 −$497 -99%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 19 $513 −$504 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $3,426 −$3,400 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $2,195 +$707 +32%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $1,458 −$1,441 -99%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $2,267 +$730 +32%
Valorant: YFP Gaming vs NRG Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Jun 19 $15 +$10 +62%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Jun 18 $1,299 −$1,280 -99%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $931 +$368 +40%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $487 +$448 +92%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $3,045 −$3,015 -99%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $2,174 +$617 +28%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $1,411 +$1,033 +73%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $1,617 −$1,595 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $3,128 −$3,094 -99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $2,685 −$2,659 -99%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 16 $2,765 +$1,448 +52%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $1,835 −$1,807 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5 Jun 16 $42 +$39 +92%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $3,158 +$2,321 +74%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $1,682 +$2,160 +128%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $6,072 −$6,000 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 16 $24,075 −$24,075 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $5,237 +$3,177 +61%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $4,448 +$3,105 +70%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 15 $3,010 +$1,460 +48%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $4,975 +$4,922 +99%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $15,291 +$3,689 +24%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $12,219 +$2,765 +23%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5,774 −$5,700 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $2,045 −$2,000 -98%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $2,887 −$2,850 -99%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $3,260 −$3,203 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $4,173 −$4,100 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $11,172 +$2,542 +23%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $5,430 +$4,570 +84%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $5,574 −$5,500 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $5,308 +$4,681 +88%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $9,971 +$5,014 +50%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $5,851 −$5,800 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $8,407 +$3,581 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
O/U 4.5 Rounds BUY Under 47¢ $477 58m
O/U 4.5 Rounds BUY Under 46¢ $227 58m
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, BUY Ion Cutelaba 23¢ $235 1h
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Over 41¢ $417 1h
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Over 40¢ $40 1h
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Over 40¢ $15 1h
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Over 40¢ $25 1h
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, BUY Ion Cutelaba 25¢ $383 1h
UFC Fight Night: Andre Fili vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Featherweight, Main BUY Andre Fili 30¢ $429 2h
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Under 48¢ $585 2h
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Under 44¢ $671 3h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 68¢ $288 12h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY Gentle Mates 63¢ $955 12h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY Gentle Mates 62¢ $24 12h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL Leviatán Esports 100¢ $1,266 12h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 67¢ $790 13h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 67¢ $2 13h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 67¢ $18 13h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 67¢ $41 13h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 67¢ $6 13h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 46¢ $1,169 23h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 55¢ $503 27h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Los Angeles Angels 42¢ $513 27h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 68¢ $193 31h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 68¢ $42 31h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 68¢ $9 31h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 68¢ $73 31h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 68¢ $351 31h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 68¢ $4 31h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 68¢ $25 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,485.26 · official $1,485.26 (match) · 648 history records