Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:12:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
A8 0xa8e6…213e world 99 markets active 1h ago coverage 550d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$784 (-5%) realized −$780 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate42%40W / 55L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$156per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$604now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days+$16
14 days+$16
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 31% +$12
world 27% −$102
sports 20% −$386
other 11% −$325
politics 7% −$1
tech 3% $0
economics 1% −$1
finance 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -2.2% -11.5% 37% 16% -8.0%
≤30d 19 -2.2% -11.5% 37% 16% -8.0%
≤90d 35 -4.4% -13.5% 31% 9% -8.5%
all 95 -4.1% -13.2% 42% 13% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 13% -14.5%
10% -21.5% 11% -22.6%
15% -29.1% 9% -30.1%
20% -36.0% 8% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$38 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

550d coverage
Net worth$604
Realized−$780
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses40 / 55
Open positions4
Markets (closed)95 / 99
History coverage550d
Avg bet$156
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 95 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 96¢ 94¢ $192 $187 −$5 (-3%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $179 $179 −$0 (-0%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Yes 97¢ 97¢ $120 $120 +$1 (+1%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 98¢ 98¢ $118 $118 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 15 $12 $0 +0%
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $203 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 15 $1 $0 -5%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 15 $36 −$4 -11%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $4 $0 -10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $6 −$1 -17%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $12 −$1 -5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $62 −$8 -13%
US and Iran sign an agreement by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $46 $0 -1%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $8 −$1 -19%
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on Second Day? Jun 15 $25 −$4 -16%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 15 $39 −$1 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 15 $2 $0 +15%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Jun 15 $34 $0 +0%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Jun 15 $39 $0 +0%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $48 $0 +0%
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $200 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 15 $0 $0 +28%
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? Jun 15 $144 +$2 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $148 +$2 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 15 $267 +$33 +12%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 16 $270 +$10 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May? May 08 $20 $0 -1%
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on May 8? May 08 $3 $0 -4%
EWY (EWY) Up or Down on May 8? May 08 $4 −$2 -53%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? May 08 $12 $0 -2%
Will the Liberal Democrats win the second-most council seat elections May 08 $35 −$1 -2%
Will Mobia Medical's market cap be between $500M and $700M at market c May 08 $7 −$2 -32%
Will Mobia Medical's market cap be less than $500M at market close on May 08 $6 −$1 -13%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 8? May 08 $5 $0 -4%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? Apr 18 $8 −$1 -10%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026? Apr 18 $57 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 18 $6 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30? Apr 18 $8 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Apr 18 $769 +$6 +1%
Iran leadership change by March 31? Apr 18 $79 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Apr 18 $119 +$1 +1%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 14 $126 $0 +0%
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Mar 14 $21 −$2 -10%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 14 $24 −$2 -10%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on March 5? Mar 14 $430 $0 -0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 5? Mar 05 $2 $0 -9%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? Mar 05 $2,078 +$4 +0%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Feb 28 $46 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 28 $117 −$4 -3%
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs? Feb 21 $294 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? Feb 21 $100 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? Feb 21 $100 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Feb 21 $100 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in February? Feb 21 $100 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? Feb 16 $1,512 −$112 -7%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Feb 16 $101 −$16 -16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 100¢ $179 53m
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 98¢ $118 53m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $192 55m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $120 55m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $1 57m
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $203 Week of June 15 2026? SELL No 6¢ $1 57m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 16¢ $32 57m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 57m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 2¢ $4 58m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 5¢ $3 58m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 9¢ $17 58m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 6¢ $8 59m
US and Iran sign an agreement by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 90¢ $45 59m
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 12¢ $6 59m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 6¢ $12 1h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on Second Day? SELL Down 42¢ $21 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 74¢ $3 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 74¢ $4 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 74¢ $4 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 13¢ $26 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 74¢ $2 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 74¢ $2 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 74¢ $15 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 1h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on Second Day? BUY Down 50¢ $25 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 3¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $604.22 · official $604.22 (match) · 1072 history records