Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:16:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa8e6…0aad world 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 471d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-1%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate52%15W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 58% +$1
other 20% −$1
politics 10% $0
economics 4% −$3
finance 2% +$1
tech 2% $0
culture 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -3.1% -12.3% 0% 0% -11.2%
≤30d 11 +0.5% -9.1% 45% 9% -9.0%
≤90d 11 +0.5% -9.1% 45% 9% -9.0%
all 29 -3.8% -12.9% 52% 3% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 3% -10.0%
10% -21.3% 0% -18.6%
15% -28.9% 0% -26.5%
20% -35.8% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 79% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

471d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses15 / 14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 29
History coverage471d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 29 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $37 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $9 $0 -3%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $13 −$1 -6%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $35 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $43 +$3 +7%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $9 +$1 +12%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 25 $32 −$1 -3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $23 −$1 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $36 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 23 $3 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 23 $36 $0 +0%
Will Rumble buy TikTok? Dec 11 $2 $0 +1%
No Trump announcement of next Fed Chair by June 30? Dec 11 $11 +$1 +6%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 26 $5 $0 +1%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $2 $0 +1%
Will Jordan Spieth win the 2025 Memorial Tournament? Jun 02 $1 $0 +3%
Will Ethereum dip to $1700 in May? May 18 $1 $0 -15%
Will Ethereum dip to $1600 in May? May 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will Susan Crawford win by 10% or more? May 17 $6 $0 +2%
Will Hong Joon-pyo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 18 $1 $0 -9%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? Apr 16 $6 $0 +0%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 15 $7 $0 -3%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? Apr 14 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Rudy Giuliani in his first 100 days? Apr 13 $8 $0 -0%
Will egg prices be between $5.50 and $5.75 in March? Apr 07 $11 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 07 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 25 $11 $0 -1%
Will Trump say 'unemployment' during the 2025 State of the Union? Mar 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Trump say 'Epstein' during the 2025 State of the Union? Mar 04 $15 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $7 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $31 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $37 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $8 8h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 8h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 10h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $9 10h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $13 25h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 27h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 27h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $7 27h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 96¢ $10 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 96¢ $25 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 96¢ $35 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 77¢ $4 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 77¢ $5 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 77¢ $8 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $10 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 59¢ $38 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 54¢ $35 24d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $31 25d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $32 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $22 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 27¢ $23 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 73¢ $21 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 73¢ $15 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 73¢ $36 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 93 history records