Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:03:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A8 0xa8e2…45ca crypto 232 markets active 2h ago coverage 551d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$106 (+0%) realized +$105 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate96%221W / 10L
Whale WR93%big bets
Drawdown79%max
Avg bet$530per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$1,078now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$23
14 days+$39
30 days+$67
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% +$157
other 2% −$69
tech 1% +$2
economics 0% +$3
politics 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 26 -3.6% -12.8% 96% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 68 -1.3% -10.7% 97% 0% -9.4%
all 231 -1.3% -10.7% 96% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 0% -9.5%
10% -19.2% 0% -18.1%
15% -27.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -34.2% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 93% (≥$1,113) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$15 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.72 per $1 lost it wins $1.72
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

551d coverage
Net worth$1,078
Realized+$105
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses221 / 10
Whale WR (big bets)93%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)231 / 232
History coverage551d
Avg bet$530
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown79%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 231 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 24? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,077 $1,078 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $1,075 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $1,070 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $1,067 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $1,063 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $1,057 +$6 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $1,054 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $1,053 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $1,048 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $1,044 +$4 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? Jun 12 $1,042 +$2 +0%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $1,039 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $1,037 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $1,037 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $1,030 +$6 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $1,030 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $1,028 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $1,024 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $1,023 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $1,020 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $1,018 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $1,015 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 30? May 31 $1,014 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 28? May 30 $34 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 26? May 26 $1,040 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 24? May 25 $1,040 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 22? May 23 $1,039 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 20? May 21 $1,036 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 18? May 19 $1,035 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on May 16? May 17 $1,034 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 13? May 14 $1,198 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 11? May 12 $1,197 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 10? May 11 $1,196 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 8? May 09 $1,195 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 6? May 07 $1,194 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 5? May 06 $1,193 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 4? May 05 $1,191 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 3? May 04 $1,190 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 1? May 02 $1,188 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 29? Apr 30 $1,189 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 27? Apr 28 $1,183 +$6 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 24? Apr 26 $1,182 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 23? Apr 24 $1,179 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 22? Apr 22 $1,178 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 21? Apr 21 $1,175 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 20? Apr 20 $1,174 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 18? Apr 19 $1,172 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 17? Apr 17 $1,172 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 16? Apr 16 $1,171 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 15? Apr 15 $1,169 +$2 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $1,077 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,075 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $1,070 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,067 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,063 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $1,057 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $1,054 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $1,053 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $1,048 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $1,044 10d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? BUY No 100¢ $1,042 11d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,039 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $1,037 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $1,037 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? BUY No 99¢ $1,030 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $1,030 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $1,028 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $1,024 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $1,023 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $1,020 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $1,018 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $1,015 23d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $1,014 24d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $34 27d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 26? SELL No 100¢ $1,043 28d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $1,040 29d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $1,040 31d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 22? BUY No 100¢ $1,039 33d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 20? BUY No 100¢ $1,036 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,078.08 · official $1,078.08 (match) · 479 history records