Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T13:06:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
A8 0xa8e1…77de crypto 58 markets active 1h ago coverage 480d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL +$601 (+6%) realized +$601 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate89%51W / 6L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$178per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$4
economics 29% $0
crypto 23% +$635
sports 6% −$30
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 2 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 3 +0.4% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
all 57 -1.3% -10.7% 89% 2% -4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 2% -4.3%
10% -19.2% 2% -13.4%
15% -27.0% 2% -21.8%
20% -34.2% 2% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 99% · top 2 99% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$16 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×8.31 per $1 lost it wins $8.31
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

480d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized+$601
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses51 / 6
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)57 / 58
History coverage480d
Avg bet$178
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 22 $32 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca May 24 $32 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in March? Apr 22 $31 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 February 16-22? Mar 13 $31 $0 +1%
Will the Logan Paul 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 600k? Feb 19 $30 +$1 +2%
Will Apple (AAPL) close at $245–250 in 2025? Jan 08 $30 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,600 in November? Dec 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.20 in November? Dec 27 $5 $0 +0%
TikTok sale announced by November 30? Dec 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 in November? Dec 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will Tesla reach $615 in November? Dec 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft reach $638 in November? Dec 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $190 on November 25? Nov 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on November 26? Nov 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on November 26? Nov 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $102,000 on November 25? Nov 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $98,000 on November 26? Nov 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,700 on November 25? Nov 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,600 on November 24? Nov 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $98,000 and $100,000 on November Nov 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.60 November 17-23? Nov 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106,000 and $108,000 on November Nov 23 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $110,000 on November 19? Nov 19 $1,098 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 12PM ET Nov 19 $678 +$678 +100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 18 $2,989 $0 +0%
Will Meteora launch a token in 2025? Nov 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $128,000 October 6-12? Nov 18 $10 $0 +0%
Meteora FDV above $10B one day after launch? Nov 18 $10 $0 +0%
Meteora FDV above $8B one day after launch? Nov 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 October 6-12? Nov 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 10 $1,710 −$2 -0%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 10 $2,500 −$3 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120K in September? Oct 10 $12 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in August? Sep 25 $11 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2500 on July 16? Aug 22 $11 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1900 and $2100 on May 16? May 17 $48 −$48 -100%
Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena May 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $93000 on May 9? May 11 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60k in April? May 03 $10 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in April? May 03 $12 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $250 in April? May 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $80 in April? May 03 $23 +$1 +6%
Ethereum above $1,900 on April 11? Apr 15 $56 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by March 31? Apr 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $3,500.00 again by March 31? Apr 01 $14 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000.00 by March 31? Apr 01 $14 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in March? Apr 01 $15 $0 +1%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 17 $614 −$20 -3%
Bitcoin above $89,000 on March 14? Mar 15 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $85000 and $87000 on Mar 14? Mar 15 $12 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $31 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $32 29d
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca BUY No 100¢ $32 61d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in March? BUY No 99¢ $1 101d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in March? BUY No 99¢ $2 101d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in March? BUY No 99¢ $2 101d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in March? BUY No 99¢ $2 101d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in March? BUY No 99¢ $2 101d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in March? BUY No 99¢ $2 101d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in March? BUY No 99¢ $3 101d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in March? BUY No 99¢ $2 101d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in March? BUY No 99¢ $2 101d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in March? BUY No 99¢ $2 101d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in March? BUY No 99¢ $3 101d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in March? BUY No 99¢ $1 101d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in March? BUY No 99¢ $1 101d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in March? BUY No 99¢ $2 101d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in March? BUY No 99¢ $2 101d
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 February 16-22? BUY No 99¢ $12 123d
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 February 16-22? BUY No 99¢ $1 123d
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 February 16-22? BUY No 99¢ $4 123d
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 February 16-22? BUY No 99¢ $3 123d
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 February 16-22? BUY No 99¢ $2 123d
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 February 16-22? BUY No 99¢ $1 123d
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 February 16-22? BUY No 99¢ $1 123d
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 February 16-22? BUY No 99¢ $1 123d
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 February 16-22? BUY No 99¢ $3 123d
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 February 16-22? BUY No 99¢ $2 123d
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 February 16-22? BUY No 99¢ $1 123d
Will the Logan Paul 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 600k? BUY Yes 98¢ $30 165d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.98 · official $30.98 (match) · 148 history records