Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:31:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
A8 0xa8e0…70e2 politics 50 markets active 2h ago coverage 46d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$448 (-9%) realized −$335 · open −$113
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate76%35W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$903now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$183
7 days−$361
14 days−$335
30 days−$452
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% +$12
other 29% −$336
politics 23% −$233
tech 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-22.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -48.8% -53.7% 45% 9% -38.3%
≤30d 36 -18.5% -26.3% 72% 19% -22.4%
≤90d 46 -13.9% -22.1% 76% 15% -20.5%
all 46 -13.9% -22.1% 76% 15% -20.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.1% 15% -20.5%
10% -29.6% 7% -28.1%
15% -36.4% 4% -35.0%
20% -42.6% 2% -41.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -33% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$89 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$903
Realized−$335
Unrealized−$113
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses35 / 11
Open positions4
Markets (closed)46 / 50
History coverage46d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 45¢ 46¢ $365 $376 +$12 (+3%)
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 45¢ 38¢ $413 $345 −$68 (-17%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 77¢ 90¢ $154 $179 +$25 (+16%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $84 $2 −$81 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 20+ times during the next PMQ? Jun 25 $511 +$261 +51%
Will Starmer say "Record Investment" during the next PMQ? Jun 24 $1 $0 +2%
Will Starmer say "Hate" or "Hatred" during the next PMQ? Jun 24 $1 $0 +2%
Will Starmer say "Thank" 5+ times during the next PMQ? Jun 24 $1 $0 +4%
Will Starmer say "Deep" or "Deeply" during the next PMQ? Jun 24 $1 $0 +4%
Will Starmer say "United States" during the next PMQ? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Starmer say "NHS" 3+ times during the next PMQ? Jun 24 $78 −$77 -100%
Will Starmer say "Constituent" or "Constituency" during the next PMQ? Jun 22 $125 −$124 -99%
Will Starmer say "Social Media" during the next PMQ? Jun 22 $351 −$350 -100%
Will Starmer say "Defense" during the next PMQ? Jun 22 $67 −$66 -98%
Will Starmer say "Russia" or "Ukraine" during the next PMQ? Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the Steam Machine cost $700 or more at release? Jun 16 $114 +$26 +23%
Will Starmer say "Trump" during the next Prime Minister's Questions ev Jun 10 $1 $0 +20%
Will Starmer say "Muslim" during the next Prime Minister's Questions e Jun 10 $5 +$1 +18%
Will Starmer say "Investment" during the next Prime Minister's Questio Jun 10 $10 $0 +1%
Will Starmer say "NHS" during the next Prime Minister's Questions even Jun 10 $16 $0 +1%
Will Starmer say "Ukraine" during the next Prime Minister's Questions Jun 10 $92 +$1 +1%
Will Starmer say "Police" during the next Prime Minister's Questions e Jun 10 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Starmer say "Victim" during the next Prime Minister's Questions e Jun 10 $100 +$3 +3%
Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 30+ times during the next Prime Ministe Jun 10 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Starmer say "United States" during the next Prime Minister's Ques Jun 10 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Starmer say "King" or "Queen" during the next Prime Minister's Qu Jun 10 $153 −$152 -100%
Will Craig Federighi say "Gemini" during the Apple WWDC 2026 event on Jun 10 $50 +$1 +2%
Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 10+ times during the next Prime Ministe Jun 10 $100 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $225 $0 +0%
Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 20+ times during the next Prime Ministe Jun 04 $56 +$2 +3%
Will Starmer say "NHS" during the next Prime Minister's Questions even Jun 03 $50 $0 +1%
Will Starmer say "Police" during the next Prime Minister's Questions e Jun 03 $50 +$1 +2%
Will Starmer say "Sport" during the next Prime Minister's Questions ev Jun 03 $50 +$1 +2%
Will Starmer say "Poverty" during the next Prime Minister's Questions Jun 03 $50 +$1 +3%
Will Starmer say "Reform" during the next Prime Minister's Questions e Jun 03 $50 +$2 +4%
Will Starmer say "Constituent" or "Constituency" during the next Prime Jun 03 $50 +$3 +5%
Will Starmer say "King" or "Queen" during the next Prime Minister's Qu Jun 03 $50 +$3 +6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 02 $42 +$8 +19%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $383 +$52 +14%
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by May 31? Jun 01 $150 +$58 +39%
Will Starmer say "Brexit" during the next Prime Minister's Questions e May 21 $15 $0 +2%
Will Starmer say "Green" or "Greens" during the next Prime Minister's May 20 $15 $0 +1%
Will Starmer say "Chancellor" during the next Prime Minister's Questio May 20 $15 $0 +1%
Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 20+ times during the next Prime Ministe May 20 $15 $0 +1%
Will Starmer say "NHS" during the next Prime Minister's Questions even May 20 $15 $0 +2%
Will Starmer say "Oil" or "Gas" during the next Prime Minister's Quest May 20 $15 +$1 +4%
Will Starmer say "Labour" 3+ times during the next Prime Minister's Qu May 20 $15 +$1 +8%
Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 10+ times during the next Prime Ministe May 20 $21 +$1 +6%
Kash Patel out by December 31? May 20 $130 −$6 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 15 $212 +$11 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 44¢ $220 1h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 46¢ $193 9h
Will Starmer say "United States" during the next PMQ? BUY Yes 80¢ $1 42h
Will Starmer say "NHS" 3+ times during the next PMQ? BUY No 25¢ $19 42h
Will Starmer say "Thank" 5+ times during the next PMQ? BUY Yes 96¢ $1 42h
Will Starmer say "Record Investment" during the next PMQ? BUY Yes 98¢ $1 42h
Will Starmer say "Hate" or "Hatred" during the next PMQ? BUY Yes 98¢ $1 42h
Will Starmer say "Deep" or "Deeply" during the next PMQ? BUY Yes 96¢ $1 42h
Will Starmer say "NHS" 3+ times during the next PMQ? BUY No 24¢ $9 2d
Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 20+ times during the next PMQ? BUY No 64¢ $65 3d
Will Starmer say "Constituent" or "Constituency" during the next PMQ? BUY No 75¢ $101 3d
Will Starmer say "Social Media" during the next PMQ? BUY No 70¢ $282 3d
Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 20+ times during the next PMQ? BUY No 70¢ $298 3d
Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 20+ times during the next PMQ? BUY No 65¢ $49 3d
Will Starmer say "Constituent" or "Constituency" during the next PMQ? BUY No 73¢ $24 3d
Will Starmer say "Social Media" during the next PMQ? BUY No 70¢ $69 3d
Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 20+ times during the next PMQ? BUY No 60¢ $75 3d
Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 20+ times during the next PMQ? BUY No 60¢ $9 3d
Will Starmer say "Defense" during the next PMQ? BUY No 50¢ $8 3d
Will Starmer say "Defense" during the next PMQ? BUY No 50¢ $59 3d
Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 20+ times during the next PMQ? BUY No 45¢ $15 3d
Will Starmer say "Russia" or "Ukraine" during the next PMQ? BUY No 44¢ $4 3d
Will Starmer say "NHS" 3+ times during the next PMQ? BUY No 50¢ $35 4d
Will Starmer say "NHS" 3+ times during the next PMQ? BUY No 50¢ $15 4d
Will the Steam Machine cost $700 or more at release? SELL Yes 93¢ $7 9d
Will the Steam Machine cost $700 or more at release? SELL Yes 93¢ $1 9d
Will the Steam Machine cost $700 or more at release? SELL Yes 93¢ $1 10d
Will the Steam Machine cost $700 or more at release? SELL Yes 93¢ $10 10d
Will the Steam Machine cost $700 or more at release? SELL Yes 93¢ $9 10d
Will the Steam Machine cost $700 or more at release? SELL Yes 93¢ $2 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $902.98 · official $902.99 (match) · 142 history records