Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:53:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa8df…74ef other 73 markets active 1h ago coverage 242d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$532 (-6%) realized −$528 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate53%38W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$121per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$138now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% +$334
other 31% −$186
sports 21% −$649
crypto 2% −$63
politics 1% +$5
tech 0% +$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +14.1% +3.3% 100% 100% +3.3%
≤30d 1 +14.1% +3.3% 100% 100% +3.3%
≤90d 1 +14.1% +3.3% 100% 100% +3.3%
all 72 -7.2% -16.1% 53% 22% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.1% 22% -15.0%
10% -24.1% 12% -23.1%
15% -31.4% 10% -30.5%
20% -38.2% 8% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% too few recent
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$39 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

242d coverage
Net worth$138
Realized−$528
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses38 / 34
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)72 / 73
History coverage242d
Avg bet$121
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $142 $138 −$4 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $32 +$4 +14%
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026? Feb 19 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Khamenei leave Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 19 $23 −$7 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Feb 17 $7 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Feb 17 $4 +$4 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Feb 17 $4 +$15 +352%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Feb 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Feb 17 $3 +$3 +91%
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 17 $1,828 −$657 -36%
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? Feb 06 $34 −$12 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Feb 06 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Feb 04 $16 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Feb 04 $27 −$13 -47%
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o Feb 03 $18 +$37 +212%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Feb 03 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Feb 03 $5 −$5 -98%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Jan 31 $178 +$34 +19%
Will Gold (GC) settle at >$5,100 in January? Jan 29 $82 −$73 -89%
Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,850-$4,975 in January? Jan 27 $108 −$82 -76%
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 30 minute Jan 25 $158 +$15 +9%
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 15 minute Jan 25 $41 +$1 +3%
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 2 hours and 2 hours Jan 25 $83 −$40 -48%
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 45 minute Jan 25 $50 −$6 -13%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 17 $22 +$4 +17%
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? Jan 14 $680 +$176 +26%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jan 14 $177 −$6 -4%
US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026? Jan 14 $290 +$30 +10%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 13 $253 −$108 -43%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Jan 13 $341 −$31 -9%
Israel strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? Jan 11 $19 $0 -2%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? Jan 10 $42 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by January 11, 2026? Jan 10 $461 +$11 +2%
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by June 30, 2026? Jan 09 $734 +$44 +6%
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Jan 07 $334 +$70 +21%
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026? Jan 07 $356 +$145 +41%
Will Stranger Things: Season 5 be #1 for 13 straight weeks? Jan 07 $0 $0 -100%
Will Stranger Things: Season 5 be #1 for 5 straight weeks? Jan 04 $116 +$10 +9%
Will Stranger Things: Season 5 be #1 for 6 straight weeks? Jan 04 $132 +$15 +12%
Will Stranger Things: Season 5 be #1 for 4 straight weeks? Jan 04 $255 +$14 +6%
Will Stranger Things: Season 5 be #1 for 3 straight weeks? Jan 04 $18 −$4 -24%
Will Stranger Things: Season 5 be #1 for 12 straight weeks? Jan 04 $0 $0 -62%
Will Stranger Things: Season 5 be #1 for 11 straight weeks? Jan 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Stranger Things: Season 5 be #1 for 10 straight weeks? Jan 04 $2 −$2 -89%
Will Stranger Things: Season 5 be #1 for 9 straight weeks? Jan 04 $1 −$1 -70%
Will Stranger Things: Season 5 be #1 for 8 straight weeks? Jan 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jan 04 $59 +$5 +9%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 26 $57 −$42 -74%
Will Apple (AAPL) close at $260–265 in 2025? Dec 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Gold close between $4100 and $4200 at the end of 2025? Dec 16 $75 −$34 -45%
Will "Stranger Things: Season 5" be the top global Netflix show this w Dec 10 $16 −$4 -23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 18¢ $36 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $32 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $146 2d
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $12 124d
Will Khamenei leave Iran by February 28, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $16 124d
Will Khamenei leave Iran by February 28, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $23 125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Down 40¢ $4 125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $2 125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Up 37¢ $7 125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $2 125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $4 125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $2 125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $2 125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $0 125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $0 125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Down 68¢ $9 125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $3 125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $4 125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $2 125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $3 125d
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 126d
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 126d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $138.50 · official $138.50 (match) · 1132 history records