Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T00:49:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa8de…eef2 crypto 1208 markets active 0h ago coverage 126d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,352 (-3%) realized −$1,352 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate35%405W / 756L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day19.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$359
7 days+$374
14 days+$748
30 days+$1,404
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,738
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-23.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +46.6% +32.7% 57% 54% +42.0%
≤30d 219 +12.4% +1.7% 47% 46% +13.2%
≤90d 471 -15.7% -23.8% 34% 32% -19.5%
all 1161 -15.0% -23.1% 35% 34% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.1% 34% -13.6%
10% -30.5% 32% -21.9%
15% -37.2% 29% -29.4%
20% -43.3% 26% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$24 · ×1.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

126d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,352
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses405 / 756
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1161 / 1208
History coverage126d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day19.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1161 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 20 $22 +$15 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 20 $31 +$42 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 20 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 20 $16 +$72 +456%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 20 $41 +$94 +232%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 20 $30 +$35 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 19 $20 −$19 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 19 $42 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 19 $31 +$50 +160%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 19 $6 +$12 +195%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 19 $51 +$32 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 19 $53 −$25 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 19 $6 +$39 +617%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 19 $17 +$35 +206%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$46 +176%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 19 $16 −$5 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 19 $8 +$5 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 19 $8 +$14 +171%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 19 $13 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 19 $34 +$10 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$15 +141%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 19 $11 +$11 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $27 −$26 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$8 +147%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 13 $9 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 13 $47 +$43 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 13 $21 +$13 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 13 $26 +$77 +291%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 12 $41 +$8 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 12 $11 +$28 +262%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 12 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 12 $11 +$29 +276%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$14 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 12 $29 −$5 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$8 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$12 +236%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 12 $15 +$10 +68%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $2 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $2 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $2 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $2 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $2 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $2 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $2 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $2 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $2 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $2 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $37 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $22 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $31 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $32 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $16 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $11 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $52 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $30 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $30 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $20 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $42 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $81 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2525 history records