Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:45:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa8dc…e0cf crypto 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (56 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$67 (+6%) realized +$67 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate56%22W / 17L
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day56.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$46
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (56 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -9.2% -17.8% 56% 31% -5.7%
≤30d 39 -9.2% -17.8% 56% 31% -5.7%
≤90d 39 -9.2% -17.8% 56% 31% -5.7%
all 39 -9.2% -17.8% 56% 31% -5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover56.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.8% 31% -5.7%
10% ← realistic here -25.7% 23% -14.7%
15% -32.9% 23% -22.9%
20% -39.5% 15% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×2.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.26 per $1 lost it wins $3.26
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$67
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses22 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)39 / 39
History coverage1d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day56.0
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 39 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $26 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $103 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $51 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $51 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $52 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $152 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $51 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 16 $102 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $51 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $101 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $51 +$9 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $76 −$3 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$10 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Down 68¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Down 89¢ $55 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Down 23¢ $2 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Up 66¢ $54 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $51 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $51 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $50 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $53 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $51 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Down 69¢ $51 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $51 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Up 84¢ $53 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $51 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $52 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $50 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 101 history records