Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T19:25:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A8
0xa8da…25a3
other · 7 markets active 2h ago
2.0score
−$2 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$3 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$50
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses1 / 1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)2 / 7
History coverage173d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit14%
Chart Positions 5 History 2 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on First Day? Up 93¢ 98¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+5%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 81¢ 80¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Yes 19¢ 22¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+18%)
Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-12-27? Yes 55¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-12-27? Dec 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-12-21? Dec 27 $3 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 55% −$3
finance 45% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $3 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 1h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on First Day? BUY Up 93¢ $25 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $10 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $10 1h
Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-12-27? BUY Yes 55¢ $3 167d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-12-21? BUY Yes 94¢ $3 173d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-51.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 2 -46.8% -51.9% 50% 0% -51.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -51.9% 0% -51.4%
10% -56.5% 0% -56.1%
15% -60.7% 0% -60.3%
20% -64.5% 0% -64.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.38 · official $50.38 (match) · 8 history records