Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T06:00:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
A8 0xa8da…012a world 181 markets active 1h ago coverage 153d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$201 (+2%) realized +$139 · open +$62
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate62%74W / 46L
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$4,664now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$62
7 days−$7
14 days−$118
30 days−$49
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% +$75
world 34% −$39
sports 15% +$142
politics 4% +$83
finance 3% −$52
crypto 1% +$33
tech 1% +$6
economics 1% −$1
weather 1% −$21
culture 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -17.2% -25.0% 33% 33% -13.0%
≤30d 20 +3.5% -6.3% 75% 40% -12.3%
≤90d 40 +2.5% -7.3% 72% 38% -8.4%
all 120 -5.5% -14.5% 62% 29% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 29% -7.5%
10% -22.6% 16% -16.3%
15% -30.1% 12% -24.4%
20% -37.0% 8% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$24 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

153d coverage
Net worth$4,664
Realized+$139
Unrealized+$62
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses74 / 46
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions61
Markets (closed)120 / 181
History coverage153d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 61 History 120 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 86¢ 90¢ $404 $425 +$21 (+5%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 23¢ $202 $287 +$84 (+42%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 93¢ 94¢ $279 $281 +$2 (+1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ $111 $272 +$161 (+144%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 11¢ $202 $132 −$71 (-35%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $139 $131 −$8 (-6%)
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win LoL Worlds 2026? Yes 59¢ 62¢ $116 $123 +$7 (+6%)
Will Iran reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 100¢ $95 $100 +$5 (+5%)
Netanyahu out by July 31? No 93¢ 98¢ $93 $98 +$5 (+5%)
Will Donald Trump visit Turkey in 2026? Yes 64¢ 97¢ $64 $97 +$33 (+52%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 91¢ 96¢ $91 $96 +$5 (+5%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 93¢ 95¢ $93 $95 +$2 (+2%)
Will Argentina be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? No 87¢ 94¢ $87 $94 +$6 (+7%)
Ebola pandemic in 2026? No 91¢ 92¢ $91 $92 +$2 (+2%)
Will Australia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 91¢ $93 $91 −$1 (-1%)
Will France be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? No 90¢ 91¢ $90 $91 +$1 (+1%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No 88¢ 94¢ $84 $89 +$5 (+6%)
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 87¢ 88¢ $87 $88 +$2 (+2%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? No 87¢ 88¢ $87 $88 +$1 (+1%)
Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in June? No 89¢ 95¢ $78 $83 +$5 (+6%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? No 84¢ 83¢ $84 $83 −$1 (-2%)
Will Afghanistan recognize Israel by December 31? No 93¢ 96¢ $76 $79 +$2 (+3%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $105 $71 −$34 (-33%)
NATO dissolves before 2027? No 95¢ 96¢ $66 $66 +$1 (+1%)
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? No 86¢ 84¢ $62 $61 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $20 +$53 +257%
Will South Korea reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $90 +$10 +11%
Will Trump say "Six Seven" this week? Jun 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Libema Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Ajla Tomljanovic Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $55 −$50 -92%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 22 $14 −$11 -79%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 20 $50 +$5 +10%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $50 +$7 +14%
Will Donald Trump visit France in 2026? Jun 15 $75 +$25 +33%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $722 −$148 -20%
Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on IPO day? Jun 12 $50 +$1 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $50 +$2 +5%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 05 $30 +$5 +16%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $49 +$31 +64%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? Jun 01 $45 +$5 +11%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? Jun 01 $50 +$6 +12%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $109 +$11 +10%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $42 +$2 +5%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma Jun 01 $47 +$3 +7%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $48 +$2 +5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? May 28 $50 +$7 +15%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $92 +$8 +9%
Israel closes its airspace by May 24? May 25 $46 +$4 +10%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $46 −$2 -4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $90 −$8 -9%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 23 $49 +$1 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 22 $18 +$2 +12%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? May 17 $61 +$3 +5%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 13 $71 +$29 +41%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 01 $46 +$34 +72%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 24 $96 +$4 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $76 +$14 +19%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? Apr 16 $89 +$6 +6%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? Apr 15 $72 +$10 +14%
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? Apr 14 $7 +$1 +10%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Apr 10 $32 −$20 -63%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 09 $67 +$33 +49%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Apr 08 $33 −$17 -52%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Apr 08 $7 −$3 -48%
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Apr 05 $36 −$23 -64%
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid Mar 28 $13 +$17 +138%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Mar 22 $99 +$4 +4%
Military action against Iran continues through March 31, 2026? Mar 22 $100 +$8 +8%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? Mar 22 $200 +$34 +17%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 22 $186 +$11 +6%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March? Mar 22 $222 +$8 +4%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? Mar 22 $79 −$26 -33%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Mar 22 $24 +$2 +6%
Foreign intervention in Gaza by April 30? Mar 22 $25 $0 -2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Mar 22 $33 −$15 -46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 78¢ $8 41m
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $73 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 27¢ $20 1h
Will T1 Qualify to the MSI 2026 Knockout Stage BUY Yes 92¢ $46 5h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $22 16h
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend BUY Yes 21¢ $22 16h
Will "I Will Find You" be the top US Netflix show this week? BUY Yes 97¢ $29 41h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $44 42h
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be less th BUY No 90¢ $45 47h
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $63 47h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 81¢ $25 47h
GTA 6 launch postponed again? BUY No 88¢ $26 3d
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be less th BUY No 89¢ $8 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? BUY No 87¢ $87 3d
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $47 3d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 87¢ $87 4d
Will Argentina be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY No 87¢ $87 4d
Will France be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY No 90¢ $90 4d
Will Afghanistan recognize Israel by December 31? BUY No 93¢ $46 5d
Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in June? BUY No 90¢ $45 5d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 95¢ $48 5d
Will South Korea reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 90¢ $90 5d
Will Australia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $93 5d
Will Iran reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $95 5d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 90¢ $45 5d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 90¢ $7 5d
Will Canada reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 82¢ $41 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes $3 6d
Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in June? BUY No 89¢ $34 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $47 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,664.29 · official $4,664.04 (match) · 534 history records