Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:20:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa8da…291d crypto 344 markets active 1d ago coverage 311d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$55 (-14%) realized −$54 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate62%211W / 128L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 65% −$46
weather 25% −$8
other 4% −$2
world 2% −$1
culture 1% +$1
sports 1% −$2
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-21.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -25.5% -32.6% 50% 38% -24.9%
≤30d 26 -28.5% -35.3% 58% 23% -31.8%
≤90d 61 -13.9% -22.1% 61% 26% -23.3%
all 339 -13.4% -21.6% 62% 28% -23.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.6% 28% -23.0%
10% -29.1% 17% -30.4%
15% -36.0% 12% -37.1%
20% -42.3% 9% -43.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

311d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$54
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses211 / 128
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)339 / 344
History coverage311d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 339 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 50¢ 48¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 101 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +48%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 $0 +7%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +44%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on May 29? May 29 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on May 29? May 28 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on May 28? May 28 $2 $0 +13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 27? May 26 $1 $0 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C or below on May 26? May 26 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on May 26? May 26 $2 $0 -15%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 26? May 25 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 25? May 25 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on May 27? May 25 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on May 23? May 25 $1 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 May 18-24? May 25 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on May 24? May 25 $1 $0 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 24? May 25 $1 $0 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on May 25? May 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on May 22? May 24 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 21? May 24 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on April 28? May 21 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on April 29? May 21 $1 $0 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on March 28? Apr 27 $1 $0 +11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 27? Apr 27 $1 $0 +13%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on March 27? Apr 27 $1 +$1 +68%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 26? Mar 27 $1 $0 +18%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 24? Mar 26 $1 $0 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 24? Mar 26 $1 $0 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 25? Mar 26 $1 $0 +10%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on March 26? Mar 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on March 25? Mar 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on March 26? Mar 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on March 23? Mar 24 $1 $0 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 23? Mar 24 $1 $0 +11%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on March 25? Mar 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on March 24? Mar 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on March 24? Mar 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 23? Mar 23 $1 $0 +21%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on March 23? Mar 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on March 25? Mar 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on March 23? Mar 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 23? Mar 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on March 22? Mar 23 $1 $0 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 22? Mar 23 $1 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on March 22? Mar 22 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 21? Mar 22 $1 $0 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 32h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 32h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 93¢ $1 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 5d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 6d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 6d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 6d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on May 29? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 19d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on May 29? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 19d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on May 28? SELL Yes 35¢ $2 20d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on May 28? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 27? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 22d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C or below on May 26? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 27? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 22d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on May 26? SELL No 78¢ $1 22d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on May 26? BUY No 83¢ $1 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 26? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 22d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C or below on May 26? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 22d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on May 26? SELL No 68¢ $1 22d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on May 27? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 22d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on May 26? BUY No 86¢ $1 23d
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on May 23? BUY No 98¢ $1 24d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 May 18-24? BUY No 96¢ $1 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.35 · official $4.35 (match) · 656 history records