Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:03:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa8d9…48a6 other 360 markets active 9h ago coverage 79d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$40,519 (+7%) realized +$51,955 · open −$11,436
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate53%177W / 156L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$1,599per market
Trades / day30.7pace
Fees−$3,010est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$32,486now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 79d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% +$15,802
sports 36% −$16,079
politics 11% +$16,148
crypto 2% +$1,854
tech 1% +$1,706
world 1% +$182
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +99.4% +80.4% 62% 56% +32.3%
≤30d 60 +15.4% +4.4% 50% 48% +0.2%
≤90d 333 +2.2% -7.6% 53% 51% -4.2%
all 333 +2.2% -7.6% 53% 51% -4.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.7 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.6% 51% -4.2%
10% -16.4% 47% -13.3%
15% ← realistic here -24.5% 45% -21.7%
20% -31.9% 38% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$1,861) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,386 vs −$1,374 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$32,486
Realized+$51,955
Unrealized−$11,436
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses177 / 156
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$3,010
Open positions46
Markets (closed)333 / 360
History coverage79d
Avg bet$1,599
Trades / day30.7
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 46 History 333 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina be the furthest advancing CONMEBOL nation at the World Cup? Yes 40¢ 46¢ $3,340 $3,814 +$473 (+14%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 83¢ 82¢ $3,328 $3,262 −$66 (-2%)
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 93¢ 93¢ $3,163 $3,165 +$2 (+0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $2,210 $2,662 +$452 (+20%)
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? No 94¢ 95¢ $2,218 $2,244 +$26 (+1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? No 47¢ 52¢ $1,936 $2,134 +$198 (+10%)
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 19¢ 22¢ $1,775 $2,102 +$327 (+18%)
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 55¢ $1,397 $1,090 −$307 (-22%)
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 83¢ 85¢ $998 $1,019 +$21 (+2%)
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 95¢ 93¢ $953 $929 −$23 (-2%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 34¢ 22¢ $1,380 $900 −$480 (-35%)
Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $696 $756 +$60 (+9%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $602 $559 −$43 (-7%)
Will Netherlands reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 87¢ 92¢ $509 $535 +$26 (+5%)
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? No 56¢ 48¢ $560 $485 −$75 (-13%)
Will Brazil be the furthest advancing CONMEBOL nation at the World Cup? No 67¢ 73¢ $408 $444 +$37 (+9%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $390 $398 +$8 (+2%)
Will Qatar win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $331 $366 +$35 (+11%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 27¢ 28¢ $270 $285 +$15 (+6%)
Will South Africa finish last in Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 79¢ 70¢ $295 $262 −$33 (-11%)
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ $400 $135 −$265 (-66%)
World Cup: Scoreless Team? Yes 82¢ 66¢ $69 $55 −$13 (-20%)
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $576 $42 −$534 (-93%)
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes $33 $25 −$8 (-25%)
Will Carlos Espá win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $576 $14 −$562 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3,219 +$1,314 +41%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $660 −$660 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $900 +$1,100 +122%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $995 −$995 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $12,340 −$12,340 -100%
World Cup: First Penalty Made or Missed? Jun 13 $196 +$27 +14%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5,246 +$12,167 +232%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $1,884 −$1,884 -100%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 13 $1,040 +$18 +2%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $6,300 −$6,300 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $5,703 +$1,715 +30%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $453 +$170 +37%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 11 $5,700 −$5,700 -100%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 10 $1,830 +$27,810 +1520%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $5,315 +$4,685 +88%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $4,900 +$5,100 +104%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $3,176 +$824 +26%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $3,400 +$1,600 +47%
Will Equatorial Guinea vs. Comoros end in a draw? Jun 08 $247 −$247 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-06? Jun 08 $480 −$293 -61%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 08 $1,800 −$1,800 -100%
Will Thailand win on 2026-06-05? Jun 06 $173 +$229 +133%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 06 $4,284 −$1,134 -26%
Will San Marino win on 2026-06-05? Jun 06 $5,600 +$4,400 +79%
Will Spain vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 05 $1,900 −$1,900 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-04? Jun 05 $2,790 −$2,790 -100%
Spread: Slovenia (-1.5) Jun 05 $3,900 −$3,900 -100%
Will Northern Ireland win on 2026-06-04? Jun 05 $46 +$64 +138%
Tyler: Henry Searle vs Mitchell Krueger Jun 04 $780 −$780 -100%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-03? Jun 04 $930 −$930 -100%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $13,177 −$13,149 -100%
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 04 $9,596 +$3,404 +36%
Will Chun Jae-soo win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? Jun 04 $5,672 +$610 +11%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $1,600 +$2,400 +150%
Will Georgia win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $893 +$730 +82%
Croatia vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 Jun 02 $1,380 +$1,620 +117%
Will Croatia vs. Belgium end in a draw? Jun 02 $5,760 +$2,240 +39%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $1,720 −$1,720 -100%
Will Bulgaria win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $683 −$683 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca Jun 01 $1,850 +$3,150 +170%
Will Hammarby IF win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $3,360 +$2,640 +79%
Will United States win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $1,240 −$1,240 -100%
Will Red Bull Bragantino win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $1,100 −$1,100 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Jun 01 $1,524 −$1,524 -100%
Will UD Las Palmas win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $2,800 −$2,800 -100%
Spread: SE Palmeiras (-2.5) Jun 01 $2,248 −$2,248 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Jil Teichmann Jun 01 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol B win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $13,553 +$10,947 +81%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $1,272 −$1,272 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Martin Landaluce May 31 $3,659 −$3,659 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $379 8h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $2,840 8h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 33¢ $5 15h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 33¢ $47 15h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 33¢ $7 15h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 33¢ $141 15h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 33¢ $2 15h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 33¢ $33 15h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 33¢ $43 15h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 33¢ $48 15h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 33¢ $9 15h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 33¢ $1 15h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 33¢ $7 15h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 33¢ $1 15h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 33¢ $7 15h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 33¢ $10 15h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 33¢ $2 15h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 33¢ $5 15h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 33¢ $15 15h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 33¢ $33 15h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 33¢ $132 15h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 33¢ $5 15h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 33¢ $2 15h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 33¢ $4 15h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 33¢ $2 15h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 33¢ $49 15h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 33¢ $25 15h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 33¢ $5 15h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 33¢ $2 15h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 33¢ $0 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32,486.16 · official $32,486.26 (match) · 2882 history records