Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:40:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa8d9…0f50 crypto 753 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 7d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (368 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,147 (+23%) realized +$2,147 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate58%437W / 316L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day368.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$90
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (368 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 668 +0.7% -8.9% 59% 55% -10.4%
≤30d 753 +1.3% -8.3% 58% 54% -10.4%
≤90d 753 +1.3% -8.3% 58% 54% -10.4%
all 753 +1.3% -8.3% 58% 54% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover368.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.3% 54% -10.4%
10% ← realistic here -17.1% 43% -19.0%
15% -25.1% 26% -26.8%
20% -32.4% 9% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,147
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses437 / 316
Open positions0
Markets (closed)753 / 753
History coverage7d ⚠
Avg bet$13
Trades / day368.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 753 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $24 −$14 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$15 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $31 +$14 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$15 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $36 +$9 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $32 +$13 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 17 $27 +$8 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $32 +$13 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 17 $28 −$18 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $36 +$9 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $33 −$3 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $40 −$10 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$8 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 17 $28 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $25 −$10 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 17 $35 −$5 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $17 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $35 −$5 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $31 −$6 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 17 $24 +$6 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $39 −$9 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $27 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $22 +$8 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$11 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 17 $15 +$5 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $32 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $8 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $33 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 17 $21 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $23 +$7 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $36 −$6 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 17 $39 −$9 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $24 +$6 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $23 +$7 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $8 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $36 −$7 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $34 −$4 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $24 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $37 −$7 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $23 −$13 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $24 +$6 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $36 −$6 -17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $0 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $3 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $3 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $3 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $3 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $4 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $4 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $3 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $3 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $4 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $4 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $4 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $2 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $2 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $4 33m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records