Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:50:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa8d7…0444 other 144 markets active 1h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$101 (-0%) realized −$101 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate6%9W / 134L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$195per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$12
politics 36% −$12
sports 13% −$63
tech 3% −$1
world 3% −$16
economics 2% −$1
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 105 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
all 143 -5.8% -14.8% 6% 3% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.8% 3% -9.9%
10% -23.0% 2% -18.5%
15% -30.4% 1% -26.4%
20% -37.2% 1% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 70% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -12% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$1 · ×5.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$101
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses9 / 134
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)143 / 144
History coverage130d
Avg bet$195
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 143 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 28 $168 $0 -0%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 May 26 $273 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $545 −$1 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $144 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $140 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $314 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 20 $188 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May? May 19 $142 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $146 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 16 $523 −$1 -0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 16 $146 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 16 $185 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 14 $365 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $518 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 13 $363 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 12 $149 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $156 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $142 $0 -0%
Will Roy Barreras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 10 $161 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $180 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 06 $136 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $155 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $178 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 05 $560 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 05 $161 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 04 $507 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $154 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $146 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $135 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 01 $165 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $132 $0 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $193 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 30 $166 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 29 $138 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $339 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 29 $180 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 28 $171 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $189 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 22 $286 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 21 $146 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 21 $165 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $493 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $380 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $338 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 20 $170 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 19 $470 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $162 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $146 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $516 −$1 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $333 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $32 1h
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $168 21d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $168 22d
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 SELL No 100¢ $129 23d
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 BUY No 100¢ $129 24d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $160 24d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $160 25d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $144 25d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $144 26d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $140 26d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $140 27d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $128 28d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $128 29d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $188 29d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $188 30d
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $142 31d
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $142 31d
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 SELL No 100¢ $144 31d
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 BUY No 100¢ $144 31d
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $146 32d
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $146 33d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $156 33d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $156 34d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL No 100¢ $146 34d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $146 34d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $185 34d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $185 34d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $190 34d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $190 35d
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $129 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.98 · official $31.98 (match) · 408 history records