Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T07:55:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa8d6…15b0 crypto 335 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate67%225W / 110L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day43.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$28
7 days−$9
14 days−$16
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 297 -3.2% -12.4% 68% 53% -10.5%
≤30d 335 -3.8% -12.9% 67% 53% -11.1%
≤90d 335 -3.8% -12.9% 67% 53% -11.1%
all 335 -3.8% -12.9% 67% 53% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.9% 53% -11.1%
10% ← realistic here -21.3% 39% -19.6%
15% -28.9% 29% -27.3%
20% -35.8% 22% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses225 / 110
Open positions0
Markets (closed)335 / 335
History coverage8d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day43.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 335 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$10 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$6 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 676 history records