Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:42:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa8d6…961a sports 191 markets active 1h ago coverage 83d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$56 (-1%) realized −$52 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate70%130W / 57L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$301now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$19
sports 48% −$62
world 3% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -58.0% -62.0% 25% 25% -27.1%
≤30d 4 -58.0% -62.0% 25% 25% -27.1%
≤90d 187 -3.9% -13.1% 70% 29% -10.3%
all 187 -3.9% -13.1% 70% 29% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 29% -10.3%
10% -21.4% 10% -18.9%
15% -29.0% 6% -26.7%
20% -35.9% 4% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$12 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$301
Realized−$52
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses130 / 57
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions4
Markets (closed)187 / 191
History coverage83d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 187 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $200 $196 −$4 (-2%)
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+5%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-6%)
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$7 +68%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-04-24? Apr 24 $98 +$14 +14%
Penguins vs. Flyers Apr 23 $100 +$8 +8%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $100 +$10 +10%
Flyers vs. Penguins Apr 21 $100 +$11 +11%
Will US Lecce win on 2026-04-20? Apr 20 $100 +$6 +6%
Bruins vs. Sabres Apr 20 $100 −$41 -41%
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $100 +$5 +5%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $100 +$13 +13%
Will Racing Club win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $100 +$3 +3%
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $100 −$34 -34%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 19 $50 +$4 +8%
Will CR Vasco da Gama win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $100 −$90 -90%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $100 +$11 +11%
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $70 +$3 +4%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $133 +$10 +7%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $166 +$7 +4%
Will Udinese Calcio win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $115 +$5 +4%
Will CA Unión win on 2026-04-17? Apr 18 $113 +$14 +12%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-04-17? Apr 17 $110 +$15 +13%
Will CA Peñarol win on 2026-04-16? Apr 17 $108 +$6 +5%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-04-16? Apr 16 $107 +$9 +8%
Sharks vs. Blackhawks Apr 16 $120 −$42 -35%
Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-04-15? Apr 16 $114 +$8 +7%
Rangers vs. Lightning Apr 16 $110 +$18 +16%
Will CA Rosario Central win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $30 +$20 +67%
Sharks vs. Predators Apr 14 $103 +$10 +10%
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-04-13? Apr 13 $102 +$5 +5%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-13? Apr 13 $101 +$9 +8%
Will CA Rosario Central win on 2026-04-12? Apr 13 $110 −$110 -100%
Pelicans vs. Timberwolves Apr 13 $94 +$6 +6%
Warriors vs. Clippers Apr 13 $61 +$7 +11%
Nuggets vs. Spurs Apr 13 $76 +$18 +23%
Will Columbus Crew win on 2026-04-12? Apr 13 $94 +$5 +6%
Will Racing Club win on 2026-04-12? Apr 13 $82 +$4 +5%
Magic vs. Celtics Apr 13 $101 −$41 -41%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $122 +$7 +6%
Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $120 +$10 +8%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $119 +$7 +6%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $60 +$4 +6%
Hurricanes vs. Utah Apr 11 $60 +$10 +17%
Wild vs. Predators Apr 11 $140 −$6 -4%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $59 +$5 +8%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $60 +$3 +5%
Will Austin FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $60 +$3 +6%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $60 +$7 +12%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $40 +$3 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $51 1h
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $206 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 2h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 17h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 17h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 18h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 19h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 19h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 79¢ $17 20h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 20h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 20h
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-04-24? SELL No 99¢ $112 53d
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-04-24? BUY No 86¢ $98 53d
Penguins vs. Flyers SELL Flyers 99¢ $108 55d
Penguins vs. Flyers BUY Flyers 91¢ $100 55d
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-04-22? SELL No 99¢ $110 55d
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-04-22? BUY No 90¢ $100 55d
Flyers vs. Penguins SELL Flyers 99¢ $111 57d
Flyers vs. Penguins BUY Flyers 89¢ $100 57d
Will US Lecce win on 2026-04-20? SELL No 100¢ $106 57d
Will US Lecce win on 2026-04-20? BUY No 94¢ $100 57d
Bruins vs. Sabres SELL Bruins 52¢ $59 58d
Bruins vs. Sabres BUY Bruins 88¢ $100 58d
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-04-19? SELL No 99¢ $105 58d
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-04-19? BUY No 94¢ $100 58d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-19? SELL No 99¢ $113 58d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-19? BUY No 87¢ $100 58d
Will Racing Club win on 2026-04-19? SELL No 95¢ $103 58d
Will Racing Club win on 2026-04-19? BUY No 92¢ $100 58d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $300.88 · official $300.88 (match) · 587 history records