Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:30:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
A8 0xa8d4…2ad9 other 235 markets active 0h ago coverage 169d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$691 (+4%) realized +$689 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate52%120W / 111L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day7.5pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit6%portable
Net worth$297now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$93
7 days+$68
14 days+$47
30 days+$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 98% +$576
sports 2% +$78
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +18.6% +7.3% 33% 33% +7.7%
≤30d 18 +1.6% -8.1% 28% 28% -2.5%
≤90d 147 -8.8% -17.5% 45% 31% -9.0%
all 231 +1.8% -7.9% 52% 39% -5.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 39% -5.1%
10% -16.7% 27% -14.2%
15% -24.8% 18% -22.5%
20% -32.1% 15% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$18 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

169d coverage
Net worth$297
Realized+$689
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses120 / 111
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions4
Markets (closed)231 / 235
History coverage169d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit6%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 231 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $108 $106 −$2 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $102 $100 −$2 (-1%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-8%)
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Austria 46¢ 58¢ $34 $44 +$9 (+27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $26 −$15 -56%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $27 −$15 -56%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $30 +$50 +165%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $12 −$11 -92%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $27 −$21 -78%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $23 −$22 -98%
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) Jun 15 $21 +$43 +203%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 15 $23 −$22 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $26 −$26 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $28 −$27 -98%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $28 −$27 -98%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $18 +$55 +298%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $30 +$74 +246%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $22 −$1 -2%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $22 +$33 +152%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $21 −$12 -59%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $17 −$16 -93%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $18 +$50 +276%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? May 06 $83 −$46 -56%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 05 $26 −$5 -19%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 05 $101 −$47 -46%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 04 $21 −$14 -64%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 04 $9 −$7 -81%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 04 $91 +$8 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 01 $67 +$33 +50%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Apr 28 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026? Apr 28 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 28 $22 +$68 +309%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026? Apr 27 $25 −$24 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 25 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 25 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026? Apr 25 $12 +$9 +75%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026? Apr 25 $81 +$19 +24%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 24 $49 +$20 +40%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 24 $91 −$17 -19%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 24 $15 −$5 -33%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 24 $11 −$10 -90%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026? Apr 22 $22 +$6 +25%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026? Apr 22 $89 −$24 -27%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $53 +$45 +85%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $87 +$13 +15%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 17 $21 +$19 +87%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 17 $22 −$22 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 16 $91 +$7 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 16 $11 −$4 -35%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026? Apr 15 $14 +$37 +272%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026? Apr 15 $30 −$2 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026? Apr 15 $11 −$9 -88%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026? Apr 14 $44 +$4 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 11¢ $11 5m
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 46¢ $35 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 24¢ $26 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 12¢ $12 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 100¢ $80 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 26¢ $27 4h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 37¢ $30 4h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 4h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $12 4h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) SELL Norway 8¢ $5 4h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) SELL Norway 8¢ $1 4h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 35¢ $27 19h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 20¢ $23 23h
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 11¢ $32 29h
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 11¢ $32 29h
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 3¢ $21 31h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY Belgium 17¢ $23 40h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 28¢ $26 40h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 32¢ $28 41h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 34¢ $28 41h
Spread: Germany (-5.5) SELL Germany 97¢ $48 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 99¢ $104 2d
Spread: Germany (-5.5) SELL Germany 50¢ $25 2d
Spread: Germany (-5.5) BUY Germany 18¢ $18 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 28¢ $30 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 18¢ $20 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $22 3d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $55 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $22 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $296.79 · official $296.79 (match) · 1312 history records