Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:00:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A8 0xa8d1…78af crypto 78 markets active 1h ago coverage 240d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$9 (+0%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate100%76W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$105now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$7
economics 0% $0
world 0% +$1
tech 0% $0
other 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 5 +1.3% -8.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 29 +1.3% -8.3% 100% 3% -9.4%
all 76 +0.7% -8.9% 100% 1% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 1% -9.4%
10% -17.6% 0% -18.1%
15% -25.6% 0% -26.0%
20% -32.9% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

240d coverage
Net worth$105
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses76 / 0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)76 / 78
History coverage240d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 76 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 20? No 100¢ 100¢ $103 $103 −$0 (-0%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 82¢ 94¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 14? Jun 19 $105 $0 +0%
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $248 in May? Jun 03 $5 $0 +5%
Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control Jun 03 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 22? Jun 03 $95 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on May 15? May 22 $99 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 9? May 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 7? May 08 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 4? May 05 $102 $0 +0%
Gemini 3.5 released by April 30? May 01 $3 $0 +2%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? May 01 $4 $0 +14%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by April 30, 2026? May 01 $5 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30? May 01 $5 $0 +9%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee May 01 $7 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 28? May 01 $80 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 25? Apr 27 $77 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 23? Apr 24 $82 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,700 on April 20? Apr 22 $84 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 18? Apr 19 $82 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on April 13? Apr 17 $82 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on April 7? Apr 08 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $76,000 on April 5? Apr 06 $100 $0 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Apr 04 $3 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on April 2? Apr 04 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,600 on March 31? Apr 01 $97 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 29? Mar 29 $99 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $60,000 on March 27? Mar 28 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on March 25? Mar 26 $96 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on March 23? Mar 24 $97 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on March 21? Mar 22 $98 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on March 14? Mar 17 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $82,000 on March 11? Mar 13 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on March 9? Mar 10 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 1? Mar 08 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 27? Mar 01 $99 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 26? Feb 27 $98 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on February 23? Feb 24 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on February 20? Feb 21 $99 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 17? Feb 19 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 15? Feb 16 $99 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on February 13? Feb 14 $97 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on February 11? Feb 12 $99 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $86,000 on February 8? Feb 09 $97 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on February 6? Feb 07 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on February 5? Feb 05 $98 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on February 2? Feb 04 $97 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 31? Jan 31 $99 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on January 30? Jan 31 $97 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 29 $5 $0 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $96,000 on January 28? Jan 29 $92 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,600 and $3,700 on January 26? Jan 27 $91 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $103 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $105 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 22? BUY No 100¢ $95 28d
Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control BUY No 99¢ $5 34d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on May 15? BUY No 100¢ $99 35d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 41d
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $248 in May? BUY No 95¢ $5 42d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 7? BUY No 100¢ $102 44d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 4? BUY Yes 100¢ $102 47d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $80 53d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $77 56d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by April 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $5 56d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $82 58d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,700 on April 20? BUY No 100¢ $84 61d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 18? BUY No 100¢ $82 63d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on April 13? BUY No 100¢ $82 68d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? BUY No 88¢ $4 68d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30? BUY No 92¢ $5 68d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee BUY Yes 98¢ $7 68d
Gemini 3.5 released by April 30? BUY No 98¢ $3 68d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on April 7? BUY No 100¢ $101 74d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $76,000 on April 5? BUY No 100¢ $100 76d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on April 2? BUY No 100¢ $101 79d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,600 on March 31? BUY No 100¢ $97 81d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 29? BUY No 100¢ $99 82d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $60,000 on March 27? BUY No 100¢ $101 84d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on March 25? BUY No 100¢ $96 87d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on March 23? BUY No 100¢ $97 88d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on March 21? BUY No 100¢ $98 91d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? BUY No 98¢ $3 96d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $104.88 · official $104.88 (match) · 160 history records