Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T15:20:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A8
0xa8d0…839c
other · 11 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$4 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$5 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$4
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses4 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)9 / 11
History coverage3d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%
Chart Positions 2 History 9 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Over 47¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +109%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $13 +$1 +7%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $3 −$2 -53%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $13 +$1 +9%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $9 +$4 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 55% +$13
sports 45% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $3 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 9h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 9h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 9h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 10h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 10h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 10h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 12h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $10 33h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 93¢ $13 2d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 2d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 2d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $14 2d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $13 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $9 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-38.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -31.7% -38.2% 44% 22% -15.5%
≤30d 9 -31.7% -38.2% 44% 22% -15.5%
≤90d 9 -31.7% -38.2% 44% 22% -15.5%
all 9 -31.7% -38.2% 44% 22% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.2% 22% -15.5%
10% -44.1% 22% -23.6%
15% -49.5% 22% -31.0%
20% -54.4% 11% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.03 · official $4.04 (match) · 21 history records