Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:25:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa8cf…bdf6 crypto 260 markets active 2h ago coverage 216d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,844 (-43%) realized −$1,832 · open −$12
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate28%72W / 186L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days−$41
14 days−$190
30 days−$273
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% −$833
crypto 19% −$69
other 17% −$479
world 6% −$272
culture 3% −$134
politics 2% −$38
weather 1% −$32
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-43.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.7% -10.2% 67% 67% -34.8%
≤30d 9 -66.9% -70.1% 22% 22% -74.9%
≤90d 95 -65.1% -68.4% 18% 18% -61.3%
all 258 -37.2% -43.2% 28% 28% -49.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.2% 28% -49.1%
10% -48.6% 27% -53.9%
15% -53.6% 26% -58.4%
20% -58.1% 23% -62.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -57% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -44% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -49% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$16 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

216d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$1,832
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses72 / 186
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions2
Markets (closed)258 / 260
History coverage216d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 258 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Over 35¢ 34¢ $32 $30 −$1 (-4%)
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Yes $12 $2 −$11 (-87%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $21 +$11 +52%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $76 −$75 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$23 +46%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $99 −$97 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $49 −$48 -99%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $5 −$5 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 03 $6 −$6 -98%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5 May 30 $73 −$72 -98%
Getafe CF vs. CA Osasuna: O/U 1.5 May 23 $52 −$51 -98%
LoL: MVK Esports vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO5) - LCP Playoffs May 23 $31 +$21 +66%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Legacy (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Playoffs May 23 $27 +$4 +15%
Hellas Verona FC vs. Como 1907: O/U 1.5 May 10 $45 −$44 -99%
Sunderland AFC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 1.5 May 09 $38 −$37 -98%
Sunderland AFC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 2.5 May 09 $51 −$50 -98%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on May 9? May 09 $5 −$5 -95%
Liverpool FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 2.5 May 09 $81 −$81 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on May 9? May 09 $2 −$2 -99%
Jessica Pegula vs. Zeynep Sonmez: Total Sets O/U 2.5 May 08 $21 −$20 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jessica Pegula vs Zeynep Sonmez May 08 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 07 $10 −$10 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 07 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 07 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 07 $10 −$10 -95%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on May 7? May 07 $1 −$1 -95%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 02 $35 −$35 -100%
Cagliari: Gianluca Cadenasso vs Jesper de Jong May 01 $149 −$148 -100%
Shandong Taishan FC vs. Qingdao Xihaian FC: O/U 2.5 May 01 $24 −$24 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? Apr 30 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 30 $42 −$42 -100%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Apr 30 $11 −$10 -93%
Over $15M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 29 $190 −$190 -100%
Over $30M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 29 $40 −$38 -95%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026? Apr 25 $2 −$2 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 2.5 Apr 20 $37 −$37 -100%
Everton FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 19 $19 +$18 +97%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Apr 17 $182 −$182 -100%
Will Solana reach $90 in April? Apr 17 $93 +$87 +93%
ACF Fiorentina vs. SS Lazio: O/U 1.5 Apr 15 $60 −$60 -100%
Over $3M committed to the Fluent public sale? Apr 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Over $2M committed to the Fluent public sale? Apr 13 $13 −$13 -100%
Barcelona Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Jack Draper Apr 13 $31 −$7 -23%
1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 1.5 Apr 13 $39 −$39 -100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 13 $22 −$21 -99%
Sunderland AFC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 1.5 Apr 12 $31 −$31 -100%
RC Celta de Vigo vs. Real Oviedo: O/U 2.5 Apr 12 $29 +$31 +104%
AC Milan vs. Udinese Calcio: O/U 3.5 Apr 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Liverpool FC vs. Fulham FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 12 $22 −$22 -100%
Atalanta BC vs. Juventus FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 35¢ $32 2h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 65¢ $21 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $76 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY Yes $13 6d
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 31¢ $4 8d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 33¢ $99 11d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $49 11d
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY Aurora 78¢ $5 16d
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja Chwalinska BUY Anna Kalinskaya 33¢ $6 19d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 25¢ $73 23d
Getafe CF vs. CA Osasuna: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 44¢ $52 30d
LoL: MVK Esports vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO5) - LCP Playoffs SELL MVK Esports 97¢ $52 30d
LoL: MVK Esports vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO5) - LCP Playoffs BUY MVK Esports 58¢ $31 30d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Legacy (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Playoffs SELL Legacy 99¢ $31 30d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Legacy (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Playoffs BUY Legacy 86¢ $27 30d
Hellas Verona FC vs. Como 1907: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $45 43d
Sunderland AFC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 44¢ $38 44d
Sunderland AFC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $51 44d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on May 9? SELL Yes $0 44d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on May 9? BUY Yes $0 44d
Liverpool FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $10 44d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on May 9? BUY Yes $2 44d
Liverpool FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $72 44d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on May 9? BUY Yes $0 44d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on May 9? BUY Yes $0 44d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on May 9? BUY Yes $0 44d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on May 9? BUY Yes $2 44d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on May 9? BUY Yes $0 44d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on May 9? BUY Yes $3 44d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.78 · official $33.58 · 689 history records