Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:18:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa8cb…581e sports 34 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$13 (+6%) realized +$15 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate58%19W / 14L
Drawdown86%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% +$18
crypto 19% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -1.0% -10.4% 58% 48% -3.6%
≤30d 33 -1.0% -10.4% 58% 48% -3.6%
≤90d 33 -1.0% -10.4% 58% 48% -3.6%
all 33 -1.0% -10.4% 58% 48% -3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 48% -3.6%
10% -19.0% 48% -12.8%
15% -26.8% 36% -21.2%
20% -34.0% 21% -28.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$15
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses19 / 14
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage6d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown86%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Down 18¢ 8¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-52%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi Jun 15 $10 +$4 +43%
Brescia: Elizara Yaneva vs Giorgia Pedone Jun 15 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $5 +$5 +95%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $1 $0 -13%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $1 $0 +8%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $2 +$3 +124%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Stuttgart Open (Doubles): Bublik/Kyrgios vs Paul/Seggerman Jun 11 $1 +$1 +132%
South Africa to score first vs. Mexico? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $5 +$7 +139%
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur Jun 10 $5 +$2 +33%
Ilkley: Emerson Jones vs Dalma Galfi Jun 10 $10 +$3 +33%
HSBC Championships: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 10 $5 +$3 +60%
Libema Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Ajla Tomljanovic Jun 10 $40 +$1 +3%
Cattolica: Gianmarco Ferrari vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 10 $47 +$1 +2%
Stuttgart Open: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Marcos Giron Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 09 $5 $0 -9%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 09 $4 +$1 +31%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $12 +$4 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Down 35¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 23m
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi SELL Suzan Lamens 100¢ $14 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 1h
Brescia: Elizara Yaneva vs Giorgia Pedone BUY Elizara Yaneva 73¢ $10 2h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi BUY Suzan Lamens 69¢ $10 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Ciryl Gane 99¢ $0 7h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Ciryl Gane 99¢ $10 7h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 50¢ $5 7h
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Sho Shimabukuro 33¢ $2 2d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Atlanta Braves 46¢ $1 2d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 43¢ $2 3d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles SELL Seattle Mariners 13¢ $1 3d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 51¢ $1 3d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Seattle Mariners 11¢ $1 3d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 44¢ $2 3d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 29¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.43 · official $2.44 · 72 history records