Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T16:26:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A8
0xa8ca…d535
sports · 264 markets active 1h ago
4.5score
+$11,775 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$9,943 · open −$285
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$34,715
Realized+$9,943
Unrealized−$285
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses172 / 89
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$1,273
Open positions2
Markets (closed)261 / 264
History coverage598d
Avg bet$7,562
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%
Chart Positions 2 History 261 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$595
7 days−$354
14 days−$4,873
30 days+$1,153
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $20,000 $19,993 −$7 (-0%)
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Ilia Topuria 81¢ 80¢ $15,000 $14,722 −$278 (-2%)
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-21? Yes 54¢ 0¢ $500 $0 −$500 (-100%)
Will Liverpool FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $500 $0 −$500 (-100%)
Will Chelsea FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $1,271 $0 −$1,271 (-100%)
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-14? Yes 59¢ 0¢ $1,000 $0 −$1,000 (-100%)
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-25? Yes 63¢ 0¢ $1,000 $0 −$1,000 (-100%)
Qatar Open: Arthur Fils vs Jakub Mensik Mensik 61¢ 0¢ $5,000 $0 −$5,000 (-100%)
Will Liverpool win on 2025-11-22? Yes 68¢ 0¢ $5,000 $0 −$5,000 (-100%)
Madrid Open: Iga Swiatek vs Ann Li Iga Swiatek 92¢ 0¢ $499 $0 −$499 (-100%)
Madrid Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Elena Rybakina Elena Rybakina 83¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-12-14? Yes 91¢ 0¢ $5,000 $0 −$5,000 (-100%)
Australian Open Men's: Joao Fonseca vs Eliot Spizzirri Fonseca 65¢ 0¢ $2,000 $0 −$2,000 (-100%)
Will Anthony Joshua win in Round 3? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-02? Yes 72¢ 0¢ $300 $0 −$300 (-100%)
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-04-25? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $195 $0 −$195 (-100%)
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) Khamzat Chimaev 81¢ 0¢ $40,000 $0 −$40,000 (-100%)
Australian Open Women's: Coco Gauff vs Elina Svitolina Gauff 64¢ 0¢ $2,000 $0 −$2,000 (-100%)
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-03? Yes 65¢ 0¢ $2,000 $0 −$2,000 (-100%)
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-11-30? Yes 73¢ 0¢ $13,000 $0 −$13,000 (-100%)
Australian Open Women's: Anastasia Potapova vs Emma Raducanu Raducanu 69¢ 0¢ $1,000 $0 −$1,000 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-01-28? Yes 62¢ 0¢ $3,000 $0 −$3,000 (-100%)
Dallas Open: Taylor Fritz vs Ben Shelton Fritz 56¢ 0¢ $5,000 $0 −$5,000 (-100%)
Will Arsenal win a trophy this season? No 9¢ 0¢ $1,000 $0 −$1,000 (-100%)
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $500 $0 −$500 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5,052 +$2,640 +52%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5,061 −$2,044 -40%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 08 $1,013 −$1,000 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $2,002 +$51 +2%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $15,103 +$4,357 +29%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $3,035 +$1,883 +62%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $5,054 −$2,759 -55%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider Jun 03 $8,029 −$8,000 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 28 $2,041 −$2,000 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Tomas Machac vs Alexander Zverev May 27 $5,319 +$704 +13%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Dino Prizmic May 27 $507 −$212 -42%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $5,045 +$2,098 +42%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $2,030 +$1,970 +97%
Will Arsenal win a trophy this season? May 19 $6,135 −$4,121 -67%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $2,023 −$2,000 -99%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? May 18 $40,120 +$4,324 +11%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Casper Ruud May 17 $5,021 +$793 +16%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $25,120 +$4,642 +18%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev May 16 $15,036 −$172 -1%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $3,547 −$3,500 -99%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $40,222 −$40,000 -99%
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card) May 10 $1,013 −$626 -62%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $17,143 +$6,468 +38%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-07? May 07 $5,058 +$3,139 +62%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-07? May 07 $1,013 +$773 +76%
Will FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? May 06 $205 +$906 +442%
Will Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) reach the UEFA Champions League final? May 06 $5,078 +$5,339 +105%
76ers vs. Knicks May 05 $5,027 +$1,043 +21%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $4,849 −$4,800 -99%
Madrid Open: Jannik Sinner vs Alexander Zverev May 03 $8,038 +$1,485 +18%
76ers vs. Celtics May 03 $340 +$249 +73%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $3,534 +$1,668 +47%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $303 −$300 -99%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-02? May 01 $5,031 −$5,000 -99%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-01? May 01 $2,017 +$797 +40%
Madrid Open: Jannik Sinner vs Arthur Fils May 01 $5,021 +$793 +16%
Madrid Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Apr 30 $757 +$300 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Apr 30 $52 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Apr 30 $25 +$3 +10%
Madrid Open: Jannik Sinner vs Rafael Jodar Apr 29 $6,964 +$1,036 +15%
Kash Patel out by June 30? Apr 29 $500 −$88 -18%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-27? Apr 28 $500 +$413 +83%
Madrid Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka Apr 27 $850 +$150 +18%
Madrid Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Elena Rybakina Apr 27 $12 −$12 -100%
Madrid Open: Arthur Fils vs Emilio Nava Apr 26 $1,000 +$171 +17%
Madrid Open: Jannik Sinner vs Elmer Moeller Apr 26 $5,000 +$104 +2%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-22? Apr 25 $5,000 +$790 +16%
Madrid Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jaqueline Cristian Apr 25 $2,500 +$128 +5%
Madrid Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Fabian Marozsan Apr 25 $500 +$337 +67%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $4,000 +$1,743 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 59% −$1,450
other 34% −$14,428
politics 4% +$24,482
economics 3% +$2,377
world 1% −$1,324
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $20,033 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 65¢ $5,052 17h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 81¢ $5,028 17h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 36¢ $3,017 17h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $5,061 23h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 81¢ $10,057 23h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 39¢ $1,018 23h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 55¢ $1,013 6d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Alexander Zverev 97¢ $2,002 6d
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva SELL Mirra Andreeva 100¢ $19,460 8d
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Mirra Andreeva 77¢ $15,103 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 61¢ $3,035 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 30¢ $2,295 10d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $5,054 10d
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider BUY Aryna Sabalenka 89¢ $5,016 11d
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider BUY Aryna Sabalenka 86¢ $3,013 12d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 31¢ $1,021 17d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 31¢ $1,021 17d
Roland Garros ATP: Tomas Machac vs Alexander Zverev BUY Alexander Zverev 88¢ $5,319 17d
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Dino Prizmic SELL Joao Fonseca 31¢ $295 18d
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Dino Prizmic BUY Joao Fonseca 51¢ $507 19d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23? BUY Yes 70¢ $5,045 21d
Will Arsenal win a trophy this season? BUY No 9¢ $514 26d
Will Arsenal win a trophy this season? BUY No 9¢ $514 26d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $1,011 26d
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19? BUY Yes 50¢ $2,030 26d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $1,011 26d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? BUY Yes 90¢ $40,120 27d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Casper Ruud BUY Jannik Sinner 86¢ $5,021 28d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-16? BUY Yes 84¢ $25,120 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -21.4% -28.9% 50% 25% -12.0%
≤30d 19 -15.5% -23.6% 53% 47% -6.9%
≤90d 84 +4.8% -5.1% 65% 52% -7.0%
all 261 -0.7% -10.2% 66% 52% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.2% 52% -8.9%
10% ← realistic here -18.8% 39% -17.6%
15% -26.6% 30% -25.6%
20% -33.8% 19% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34,714.89 · official $34,714.89 (match) · 661 history records