Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:53:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A8
0xa8ca…ef3d
other · 126 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$25 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$20 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)1%
Wins / losses1 / 122
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)123 / 126
History coverage91d
Avg bet$113
Trades / day10.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%
Chart Positions 3 History 123 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days+$5
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay be the highest-scoring team in Group H during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 29¢ 81¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+183%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? No 81¢ 81¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 4? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? No 59¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Jun 12 $1 $0 -2%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina finish second in Group B in the 2026 FIFA Jun 12 $2 $0 -2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 12 $26 $0 -1%
Will Colombia finish second in Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Grou Jun 12 $20 −$1 -3%
Will Scotland be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Jun 12 $1 $0 -2%
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? Jun 12 $17 $0 -2%
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? Jun 12 $4 $0 -2%
Will Czechia be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 12 $5 $0 -2%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? Jun 12 $42 −$1 -3%
Will Senegal be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 12 $24 $0 -1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? Jun 12 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 04 $133 $0 -0%
Will Spain vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 04 $22 $0 -0%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $15 $0 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $35 +$14 +39%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 03 $36 $0 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? Jun 03 $39 −$1 -4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 02 $20 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 02 $20 $0 -1%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 02 $10 $0 -1%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 01 $28 −$3 -11%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 01 $41 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? May 28 $41 −$1 -2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 27 $15 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $159 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 26 $48 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 26 $20 $0 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 26 $37 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 25 $45 $0 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 25 $41 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 12 $7 −$1 -8%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Alexei Popyrin May 11 $41 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 11 $1 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? May 10 $40 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? May 09 $1 $0 -7%
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $1 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 26 $50 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 24 $1 $0 -11%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 24 $6 $0 -2%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $326 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 23 $50 −$1 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 23 $3 $0 -12%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 23 $256 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $1,034 −$1 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $4 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? Apr 20 $1 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 20 $5 $0 -1%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 18 $642 −$1 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $252 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 30% −$12
politics 20% −$6
world 20% −$7
sports 11% −$2
economics 7% −$2
crypto 6% +$10
finance 6% −$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 81¢ $15 44m
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 81¢ $16 44m
Will Croatia be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? SELL Yes 23¢ $1 56m
Will Croatia be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 56m
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina finish second in Group B in the 2026 FIFA SELL Yes 29¢ $2 2h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina finish second in Group B in the 2026 FIFA BUY Yes 29¢ $2 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? SELL Yes 68¢ $26 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? BUY Yes 69¢ $26 2h
Will Colombia finish second in Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Grou SELL No 52¢ $19 3h
Will Colombia finish second in Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Grou BUY No 53¢ $20 3h
Will Scotland be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 3h
Will Scotland be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 3h
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? SELL Yes 43¢ $17 4h
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? BUY Yes 44¢ $17 4h
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $4 4h
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? BUY Yes 55¢ $4 4h
Will Czechia be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? SELL Yes 38¢ $3 5h
Will Czechia be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? SELL Yes 38¢ $2 5h
Will Czechia be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 38¢ $3 5h
Will Czechia be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 5h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? SELL No 61¢ $24 5h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? BUY No 62¢ $25 5h
Will Senegal be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? SELL No 61¢ $8 6h
Will Senegal be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? SELL No 61¢ $11 6h
Will Senegal be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? SELL No 61¢ $5 6h
Will Senegal be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY No 61¢ $11 6h
Will Senegal be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY No 61¢ $5 6h
Will Senegal be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY No 61¢ $9 6h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? SELL Yes 47¢ $19 6h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? BUY Yes 47¢ $19 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)+3.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -2.0% -11.3% 0% 0% -11.3%
≤30d 30 +62.2% +46.8% 3% 3% -10.3%
≤90d 115 +15.3% +4.3% 1% 1% -9.7%
all 123 +14.2% +3.3% 1% 1% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover10.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.3% 1% -9.7%
10% -6.6% 1% -18.4%
15% -15.6% 1% -26.3%
20% -23.9% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.82 · official $0.85 (match) · 1247 history records