Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:02:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa8c9…6f23 sports 358 markets active 0h ago coverage 163d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$261 (-5%) realized −$264 · open +$3
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate76%271W / 85L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$74
7 days+$74
14 days+$74
30 days+$74
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% −$157
crypto 15% −$95
other 10% −$15
world 3% +$3
politics 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +26.9% +14.8% 93% 67% +2.9%
≤30d 27 +26.9% +14.8% 93% 67% +2.9%
≤90d 42 -6.3% -15.3% 69% 50% -35.2%
all 356 -5.7% -14.7% 76% 34% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.7% 34% -13.8%
10% -22.8% 15% -22.1%
15% -30.3% 9% -29.6%
20% -37.1% 4% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$9 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

163d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized−$264
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses271 / 85
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)356 / 358
History coverage163d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 356 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 97¢ 100¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+3%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Under 88¢ 100¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $10 +$5 +46%
Call of Duty: Vancouver Surge vs Los Angeles Thieves - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $25 +$6 +23%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla Jun 20 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $71 +$7 +10%
Counter-Strike: Phantom vs Walczaki - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $8 +$1 +11%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $1 $0 +20%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $67 +$10 +14%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Epis Jun 20 $55 +$12 +21%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof Jun 20 $53 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $32 +$7 +21%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League S Jun 20 $10 +$2 +24%
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The International Southe Jun 20 $5 $0 +6%
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $30 +$2 +7%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2 +$3 +158%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Yangon Galacticos (BO3) - The International South Jun 20 $10 +$4 +42%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 +$4 +73%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $13 $0 +3%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$2 +12%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $23 −$11 -46%
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs Jun 19 $1 $0 +27%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $35 +$3 +9%
Counter-Strike: Millennium Esports vs EAC Rising - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $10 +$1 +9%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $5 +$3 +59%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 19 $21 +$4 +19%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $10 +$2 +21%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $1 $0 +21%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 +$6 +109%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $5 −$4 -92%
Will SC Freiburg vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Apr 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Apr 04 $1 $0 +3%
Credit One Charleston Open: Jessica Pegula vs Elisabetta Cocciaretto Apr 04 $10 −$10 -100%
UD Las Palmas vs. Granada CF: O/U 1.5 Apr 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will SD Eibar win on 2026-04-02? Apr 04 $1 +$1 +45%
Will UD Las Palmas win on 2026-04-02? Apr 04 $2 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Apr 02 $5 +$1 +28%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-01? Apr 02 $1 −$1 -100%
SSC Napoli vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 2.5 Apr 02 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 02 $114 −$114 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Apr 02 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Apr 02 $74 −$74 -100%
76ers vs. Warriors Apr 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Apr 02 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Feb 25 $68 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Feb 25 $73 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Feb 25 $66 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Feb 25 $60 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Feb 25 $100 +$49 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Feb 25 $99 +$12 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Feb 25 $99 +$4 +4%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs 1win - Game 2 Winner Feb 04 $5 −$3 -52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 88¢ $10 25m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 97¢ $50 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 97¢ $26 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 84¢ $10 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 2h
Call of Duty: Vancouver Surge vs Los Angeles Thieves - Game 2 Winner BUY Los Angeles Thieves 81¢ $25 9h
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla SELL 100 Thieves 100¢ $11 9h
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla BUY 100 Thieves 94¢ $10 10h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 10h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $78 10h
Counter-Strike: Phantom vs Walczaki - Map 1 Winner SELL Phantom 100¢ $9 11h
Counter-Strike: Phantom vs Walczaki - Map 1 Winner BUY Phantom 90¢ $8 11h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1 11h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 92¢ $70 12h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 100¢ $77 15h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 90¢ $2 15h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 87¢ $65 15h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Epis SELL ECHO 100¢ $67 15h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Epis BUY ECHO 87¢ $40 15h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Epis BUY ECHO 72¢ $10 15h
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof SELL Virtus.pro 100¢ $50 15h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $1 16h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 16h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Epis BUY ECHO 68¢ $5 16h
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof BUY Virtus.pro 99¢ $50 16h
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof SELL 1WIN 55¢ $2 17h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner SELL KOLESIE 100¢ $39 17h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League S SELL KOLESIE 100¢ $12 17h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner BUY KOLESIE 88¢ $30 17h
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The International Southe SELL OG 100¢ $5 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.93 · official $62.93 (match) · 916 history records