Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T08:19:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
A8 0xa8c7…7e6d world 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 215d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,219 (+15%) realized +$1,444 · open −$225
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate41%15W / 22L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$187per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$134now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$65
7 days+$50
14 days+$50
30 days+$1,149
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 73% +$927
politics 10% +$535
other 10% −$330
tech 6% +$84
crypto 2% −$2
finance 0% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +60.3% +45.0% 75% 75% +73.3%
≤30d 16 -19.1% -26.8% 44% 38% +5.7%
≤90d 28 +18.3% +7.1% 36% 32% +5.7%
all 37 +17.1% +6.0% 41% 35% +6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.0% 35% +6.5%
10% -4.2% 30% -3.7%
15% -13.4% 22% -13.0%
20% -21.9% 22% -21.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -34% → late +66% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$136 vs −$28 · ×4.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.26 per $1 lost it wins $3.26
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

215d coverage
Net worth$134
Realized+$1,444
Unrealized−$225
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses15 / 22
Open positions8
Markets (closed)37 / 45
History coverage215d
Avg bet$187
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 46¢ 48¢ $70 $74 +$4 (+5%)
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? Yes 14¢ 2¢ $200 $29 −$171 (-85%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? Yes 45¢ 24¢ $25 $13 −$12 (-48%)
Grok 4.4 released by June 30? Yes 18¢ 4¢ $30 $7 −$22 (-75%)
Russian strike on Poland by June 30? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-29%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 9¢ 1¢ $20 $2 −$18 (-88%)
SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO? No 9¢ 5¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-52%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Yes 12¢ 5¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 21 $11 +$17 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 21 $13 +$2 +12%
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $26 +$46 +178%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? Jun 15 $57 −$14 -25%
GPT-5.6 released by June 8, 2026? Jun 04 $26 −$25 -96%
Will Tripadvisor (TRIP) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 04 $25 −$25 -100%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch? Jun 04 $25 −$25 -100%
Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? Jun 04 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026? Jun 04 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Donald Trump not announce a next United States Attorney General b Jun 04 $200 −$200 -100%
Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, Jun 04 $50 −$50 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Jun 04 $1,301 +$456 +35%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? Jun 04 $4,346 +$197 +4%
Will Donald Trump announce Todd Blanche as the next United States Atto Jun 04 $500 +$780 +156%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 01 $199 +$116 +58%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 22 $415 +$81 +20%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? May 13 $21 +$29 +138%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 09 $15 +$209 +1392%
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026? Apr 25 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - December 5, 2PM ET Apr 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Grok 4.20 released by January 15? Apr 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Grok 4.20 released by January 9? Apr 25 $1 −$1 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026? Apr 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Russia enter Rai-Oleksandrivka by April 30, 2026? Apr 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Apr 25 $100 −$4 -4%
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by April 30, 2026? Apr 25 $400 −$111 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Apr 24 $16 −$16 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 28 $100 +$96 +96%
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 31? Jan 23 $15 −$10 -65%
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026? Jan 21 $1 −$1 -64%
US x Venezuela military engagement by January 31, 2026? Jan 03 $5 +$10 +194%
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by December 31? Jan 01 $1 −$1 -97%
U.S. forces board Bella 1 by Tuesday? Dec 26 $2 +$1 +28%
Nothing Ever Happens: Airdrops Edition Dec 22 $6 $0 -7%
Nothing Ever Happens: December Dec 22 $5 +$2 +34%
Nothing Ever Happens: November Dec 05 $8 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Down 73¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Down 42¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 1h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? SELL No 63¢ $72 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 5d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? SELL Yes 8¢ $39 5d
Grok 4.4 released by June 30? BUY Yes 18¢ $31 5d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? BUY Yes 9¢ $51 7d
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 22¢ $26 16d
GPT-5.6 released by June 8, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $26 16d
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 18d
Russian strike on Poland by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 18d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 100¢ $314 19d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL No 99¢ $295 30d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 46¢ $70 31d
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? BUY Yes 14¢ $200 31d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $15 51d
Will Tripadvisor (TRIP) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 62¢ $25 51d
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $21 51d
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $24 54d
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $25 54d
SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO? BUY No 9¢ $5 54d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch? BUY No 41¢ $25 54d
Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY No 67¢ $50 54d
Will Trump visit China by May 15? BUY No 29¢ $50 54d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $134.06 · official $134.06 (match) · 123 history records