Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:39:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A8
0xa8c6…44e8
world · 115 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$83,484 +15%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$59,787 · open +$5,622
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$247,831
Realized+$59,787
Unrealized+$5,622
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses32 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Open positions202
Markets (closed)59 / 115
Avg bet$4,988
Trades / day342.2
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit85%
Chart Positions 202 History 59 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,423
7 days+$12,466
14 days+$59,787
30 days+$59,787
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran Nuke before 2027? No 90¢ 91¢ $14,275 $14,433 +$158 (+1%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 80¢ 82¢ $8,902 $9,174 +$272 (+3%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No 85¢ 90¢ $8,363 $8,817 +$454 (+5%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Yes 59¢ 81¢ $5,130 $7,045 +$1,914 (+37%)
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? No 87¢ 95¢ $6,253 $6,771 +$518 (+8%)
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 88¢ 96¢ $5,282 $5,759 +$477 (+9%)
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? No 95¢ 97¢ $5,533 $5,648 +$115 (+2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 78¢ 78¢ $5,265 $5,252 −$13 (-0%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No 86¢ 88¢ $5,080 $5,193 +$113 (+2%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $4,930 $4,942 +$13 (+0%)
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? No 82¢ 94¢ $4,198 $4,828 +$630 (+15%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 86¢ 90¢ $4,295 $4,525 +$230 (+5%)
Iran coup attempt by June 30? No 87¢ 97¢ $3,923 $4,393 +$470 (+12%)
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 98¢ 98¢ $4,241 $4,270 +$29 (+1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 87¢ 84¢ $4,302 $4,137 −$164 (-4%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? No 60¢ 74¢ $3,330 $4,100 +$770 (+23%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $3,998 $3,864 −$134 (-3%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? No 85¢ 68¢ $4,566 $3,643 −$922 (-20%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026? Yes 61¢ 84¢ $2,576 $3,531 +$955 (+37%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No 65¢ 64¢ $3,356 $3,343 −$13 (-0%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 84¢ 88¢ $3,064 $3,198 +$134 (+4%)
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? No 79¢ 80¢ $3,016 $3,054 +$38 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 78¢ 76¢ $3,128 $3,048 −$80 (-3%)
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 91¢ 97¢ $2,762 $2,933 +$172 (+6%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No 92¢ 94¢ $2,760 $2,835 +$75 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump say "tariff" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference Jun 12 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Trump say "Nazi" or "Holocaust" during the Hanukkah Reception eve Jun 12 $19 −$13 -69%
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 350M by June 5? Jun 12 $250 −$250 -100%
Will Trump say "Kamala" during "60 Minutes" on November 2? Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Trump say "ISIS" at Rocky Mount events on Friday? Jun 12 $55 −$55 -100%
Epstein blackmail evidence released by March 31? Jun 12 $42 +$900 +2124%
Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2025? Jun 12 $74 −$74 -100%
Will Trump say "Hell" 2+ times during trophy presentation? Jun 12 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 40.0 and 40.4 on March 20, 202 Jun 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Donald Trump say "Cuba" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Lisa Su be announced as the next CEO of Tesla? Jun 12 $0 $0 -50%
Will Dara Khosrowshahi be announced as the next CEO of Tesla? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by June 30? Jun 12 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Lei Jun be announced as the next CEO of Tesla? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump lower tariffs on Mexico by December 31? Jun 12 $43 −$32 -75%
Will Trump and Zelenskyy’s handshake last less than 2 seconds? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump say "Transgender" during events with PM of Canada on Oct 7? Jun 12 $80 −$80 -100%
Wisconsin judge convicted for obstructing immigration operation? Jun 12 $17 −$13 -80%
Will Trump say "Hindu" or "Hinduism" during Diwali Celebration events Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $9,640 +$412 +4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $1,481 −$1 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 12 $483 +$9 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 12 $988 +$3 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 12 $935 +$5 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 Jun 12 $590 +$50 +8%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 11 $2,265 +$20 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 11 $4,494 −$168 -4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 11 $6,462 +$79 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 11 $2,632 −$130 -5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 11 $9,067 +$3,012 +33%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $1,781 +$122 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $10,140 +$89 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? Jun 11 $314 +$43 +14%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 11 $3,491 −$281 -8%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $2,660 +$130 +5%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $168 +$33 +20%
Starmer out by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $765 +$832 +109%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 10 $4,817 −$1,054 -22%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $496 +$2 +0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $217 −$44 -20%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $1,872 +$87 +5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 10 $4,635 +$395 +8%
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $2,467 +$9 +0%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $1,453 +$47 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $1,788 +$2,600 +145%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $666 −$19 -3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $193 +$127 +66%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $2,219 +$1,012 +46%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $668 +$1,472 +220%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $4,985 +$4,042 +81%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 45% +$14,005
politics 21% −$1,357
other 17% +$5,167
crypto 10% +$46,444
tech 7% +$846
culture 0% +$15
finance 0% +$8
economics 0% +$65
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $475 6m
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 4¢ $15 7m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $212 8m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY No 61¢ $498 10m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $831 12m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 77¢ $31 13m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 77¢ $46 14m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 77¢ $308 14m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? SELL Yes 99¢ $1 16m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 78¢ $87 19m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 78¢ $303 19m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? SELL Yes 99¢ $1 21m
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $930 22m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? SELL Yes 99¢ $1 24m
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 3¢ $2 24m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $853 26m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 28m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $847 28m
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 3¢ $1 29m
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY No 86¢ $37 29m
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $348 32m
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 3¢ $0 32m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $422 33m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $358 33m
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 3¢ $1 33m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? SELL Yes 99¢ $1 35m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 76¢ $1,520 36m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $65 39m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? SELL Yes 99¢ $1 43m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? SELL Yes 99¢ $5 46m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)+10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 57 +18.5% +7.2% 53% 23% +1.2%
≤30d 59 +22.3% +10.6% 54% 25% +22.8%
≤90d 59 +22.3% +10.6% 54% 25% +22.8%
all 59 +22.3% +10.6% 54% 25% +22.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover342.2 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +10.6% 25% +22.8%
10% +0.0% 17% +11.1%
15% ← realistic here -9.6% 15% +0.3%
20% -18.5% 14% -9.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $247,831.00 · official $247,831.87 (match) · 3500 history records