Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:45:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
A8 0xa8c6…853d other 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 185d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,315 (-26%) realized −$1,353 · open +$38
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -43% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate11%1W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$382per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit23%portable
Net worth$1,034now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$1,219
14 days−$1,219
30 days−$1,219
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 66% −$1,173
other 32% −$98
sports 1% −$59
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-48.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -30.1% -36.7% 14% 14% -39.6%
≤30d 7 -30.1% -36.7% 14% 14% -39.6%
≤90d 8 -36.4% -42.4% 12% 12% -40.3%
all 9 -43.4% -48.8% 11% 11% -41.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -48.8% 11% -41.9%
10% -53.7% 11% -47.5%
15% -58.2% 11% -52.5%
20% -62.3% 11% -57.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -43% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$173 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

185d coverage
Net worth$1,034
Realized−$1,353
Unrealized+$38
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses1 / 8
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)9 / 13
History coverage185d
Avg bet$382
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit23%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $380 $421 +$41 (+11%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $195 $219 +$24 (+12%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $196 $208 +$12 (+6%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $226 $187 −$39 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $196 −$12 -6%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $83 −$7 -8%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$26 -50%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $21 +$18 +90%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 13 $3,291 −$1,173 -36%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner May 17 $61 −$49 -81%
Will FaZe Clan win the StarLadder Budapest Major 2025? Dec 21 $99 −$99 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $20 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $51 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $52 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $115 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $11 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $20 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $18 2h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $17 2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $23 2h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $21 2h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $36 2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $51 2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $69 2h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $64 2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $52 3d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $61 3d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $9 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 3d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $15 3d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $83 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 30¢ $25 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 40¢ $39 3d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $175 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 20¢ $21 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $196 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,034.43 · official $1,032.48 (match) · 55 history records