Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T00:50:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A8
0xa8c5…cacb
crypto · 388 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$319 -9%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$307 · open −$26
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$359
Realized−$307
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses163 / 217
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions8
Markets (closed)380 / 388
History coverage48d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day36.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%
Chart Positions 8 History 380 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$72
14 days−$173
30 days−$85
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $236 $227 −$10 (-4%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $58 $59 +$1 (+2%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $25 $33 +$8 (+32%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-15%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $16 $12 −$4 (-25%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 37¢ 19¢ $19 $10 −$9 (-48%)
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 11.5 Yes 52¢ 49¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Down 18¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Up 29¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Up 32¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Down 24¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Down 30¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Flavio Cobolli 18¢ 0¢ $45 $0 −$45 (-100%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Down 37¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - May 29, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Frances Tiafoe 15¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - May 29, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $7 +$6 +91%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $4 +$7 +163%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 12 $12 −$12 -96%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $32 +$9 +30%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$1 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$3 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 10 $8 −$4 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$3 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 10 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 10 $8 −$6 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 10 $7 −$6 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$3 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 10 $7 +$3 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 10 $6 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 10 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$2 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 10 $6 +$3 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$9 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Victor Wembanyama record a quadruple double this season? Jun 09 $8 −$5 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 09 $9 −$9 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -95%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $6 +$7 +109%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $58 −$45 -76%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $31 −$2 -6%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 05 $7 +$4 +54%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $19 −$19 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -97%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 04 $79 +$24 +30%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $29 −$29 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 03 $4 −$4 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $15 −$15 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 52% −$415
sports 30% +$153
other 18% −$70
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 11.5 BUY Yes 79¢ $2 0m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $24 6m
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 34m
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 11.5 BUY Yes 52¢ $4 39m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 1h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 6h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 6h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 6h
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 6h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 6h
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 33¢ $1 23h
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $3 23h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 73¢ $3 23h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 43¢ $1 23h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 23h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 42¢ $3 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $2 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $2 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $4 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-29.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -16.1% -24.1% 40% 40% -35.9%
≤30d 272 -17.8% -25.6% 44% 43% -13.2%
≤90d 380 -22.0% -29.4% 43% 41% -19.3%
all 380 -22.0% -29.4% 43% 41% -19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover36.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -29.4% 41% -19.3%
10% ← realistic here -36.2% 38% -27.0%
15% -42.3% 33% -34.0%
20% -48.0% 24% -40.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $358.67 · official $358.80 (match) · 1871 history records