Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T03:58:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa8c3…ed81 crypto 113 markets active 0h ago coverage 144d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$154 (-16%) realized −$104 · open −$50
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate42%47W / 65L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$93
7 days−$93
14 days−$93
30 days−$93
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$81
sports 10% −$86
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 98 -9.7% -18.3% 40% 31% -22.0%
≤30d 98 -9.7% -18.3% 40% 31% -22.0%
≤90d 98 -9.7% -18.3% 40% 31% -22.0%
all 112 -8.8% -17.5% 42% 34% -22.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.5% 34% -22.2%
10% -25.4% 24% -29.6%
15% -32.6% 13% -36.4%
20% -39.2% 7% -42.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

144d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$104
Unrealized−$50
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses47 / 65
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)112 / 113
History coverage144d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 112 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Karmine Corp 5¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 29 $21 +$10 +49%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 29 $21 +$6 +28%
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 29 $21 +$5 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 29 $20 +$4 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 29 $21 −$21 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 29 $21 +$6 +27%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 29 $20 +$4 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 29 $21 +$9 +43%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 29 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 29 $20 +$3 +14%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 29 $21 +$6 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 29 $21 +$6 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 29 $20 +$4 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 29 $1 +$35 +2992%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 29 $21 +$9 +42%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 29 $6 $0 -3%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 29 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 29 $5 +$2 +33%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 29 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 29 $28 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 29 $7 −$7 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$2 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 27 $10 −$3 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 27 $10 −$5 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 27 $16 −$8 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 27 $16 −$8 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 27 $6 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 27 $6 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 27 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 27 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 27 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 27 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $31 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 4m
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $21 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $26 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $21 11m
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $26 13m
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $21 16m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $24 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $20 21m
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $26 23m
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $21 26m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $21 31m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 5¢ $5 32m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 4¢ $5 33m
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $24 33m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 5¢ $5 34m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 6¢ $5 34m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 96¢ $3 34m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 96¢ $12 34m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 4¢ $5 35m
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $20 36m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 5¢ $5 36m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 6¢ $5 36m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 6¢ $5 37m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 7¢ $5 37m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 38m
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $30 38m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 5¢ $5 39m
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $21 41m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.48 · official $0.48 (match) · 352 history records