Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T12:25:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa8c2…6c04 other 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 304d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate26%10W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 31% $0
other 28% $0
politics 17% $0
sports 14% $0
culture 6% $0
finance 3% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 8 -1.5% -10.9% 12% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 8 -1.5% -10.9% 12% 0% -9.7%
all 39 -0.4% -9.9% 26% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

304d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses10 / 29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage304d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 98¢ 98¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $36 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $40 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $3 $0 -12%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $37 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $40 $0 -0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 10 $41 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $40 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $37 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 16 $46 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Sep 16 $2 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 16 $36 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 15 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 15 $4 $0 -7%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 14 $2 $0 -2%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 14 $38 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 13 $6 $0 +3%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 13 $33 $0 +0%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 02 $32 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 02 $34 $0 +0%
Will Alexei Gorinov win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 02 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 02 $37 $0 -0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% in 2025? Aug 29 $39 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 29 $39 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Aug 28 $39 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 26 $31 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 26 $18 $0 +0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 26 $32 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 26 $33 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Aug 26 $38 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 25 $39 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 25 $34 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Aug 25 $39 $0 +0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Aug 25 $39 $0 +0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 24 $31 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Aug 24 $4 $0 +0%
Will Ben Shelton win the 2025 US Open? Aug 24 $5 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $40 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $36 23h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $36 25h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $36 28h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $36 31h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $40 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $40 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $37 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $15 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $21 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $40 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $40 11d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $41 13d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $41 13d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 62¢ $40 14d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 62¢ $40 14d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 54¢ $37 15d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 54¢ $5 15d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 54¢ $31 15d
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? SELL No 99¢ $7 281d
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 281d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $36 281d
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? BUY No 99¢ $7 281d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 98¢ $7 282d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 98¢ $7 282d
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 282d
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 282d
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 282d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.08 · official $40.08 (match) · 127 history records