Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:16:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa8c2…179c crypto 423 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (192 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$76 (-4%) realized −$76 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%199W / 223L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day192.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$116
7 days−$148
14 days−$147
30 days−$147
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$146
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (192 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-34.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 421 -28.1% -34.9% 47% 47% -17.2%
≤30d 422 -28.0% -34.8% 47% 47% -17.2%
≤90d 422 -28.0% -34.8% 47% 47% -17.2%
all 422 -28.0% -34.8% 47% 47% -17.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover192.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -34.8% 47% -17.2%
10% ← realistic here -41.1% 42% -25.1%
15% -46.8% 8% -32.3%
20% -52.0% 8% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$76
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses199 / 223
Open positions1
Markets (closed)422 / 423
History coverage8d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day192.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 422 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Down 40¢ 48¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 41 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $22 +$27 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$8 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$4 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$4 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$4 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$4 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $12 −$6 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$2 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 5¢ $0 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $6 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $0 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $0 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $0 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $3 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $10 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $0 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $0 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $4 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $4 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Up 4¢ $0 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Down 4¢ $0 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $6 27m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.85 · official $2.85 (match) · 1515 history records