Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T16:19:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A8 0xa8c0…19bd other 57 markets active 1h ago coverage 65d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$766 (+7%) realized +$783 · open −$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate60%31W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$202per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit12%portable
Net worth$883now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$379
7 days+$570
14 days+$448
30 days+$148
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 91% +$947
sports 6% −$256
crypto 3% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-3.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +24.0% +12.2% 65% 65% +4.7%
≤30d 29 +6.4% -3.8% 59% 59% -7.3%
≤90d 52 +6.2% -3.9% 60% 58% -3.5%
all 52 +6.2% -3.9% 60% 58% -3.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.9% 58% -3.5%
10% -13.1% 52% -12.8%
15% -21.5% 52% -21.2%
20% -29.2% 35% -28.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$143 vs −$177 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$883
Realized+$783
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses31 / 21
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions5
Markets (closed)52 / 57
History coverage65d
Avg bet$202
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit12%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany leading at halftime? Yes 54¢ 55¢ $300 $303 +$3 (+1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $150 $148 −$2 (-1%)
Netherlands leading at halftime? Yes 33¢ 32¢ $150 $148 −$2 (-2%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 56¢ 54¢ $150 $143 −$7 (-4%)
Brazil leading at halftime? Yes 42¢ 40¢ $150 $141 −$9 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Croatia leading at halftime? Jun 27 $110 +$190 +172%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $211 +$189 +90%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 27 $147 −$144 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $152 −$150 -98%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 27 $290 +$132 +46%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $231 +$169 +73%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 27 $169 +$217 +129%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 25 $227 +$173 +76%
Korea Republic leading at halftime? Jun 24 $173 −$170 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $173 −$171 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $180 +$98 +55%
Colombia leading at halftime? Jun 24 $181 −$178 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $167 +$83 +50%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 23 $283 +$123 +44%
Croatia leading at halftime? Jun 23 $162 −$160 -98%
England leading at halftime? Jun 23 $334 −$330 -99%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 23 $108 +$204 +188%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $117 +$139 +119%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $111 +$51 +46%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 22 $112 +$104 +93%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 21 $330 +$118 +36%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $156 −$155 -99%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 21 $142 −$140 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $418 +$209 +50%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $197 +$122 +62%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $153 −$150 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $286 +$163 +57%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $294 −$290 -99%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $304 −$300 -99%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $230 −$225 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $572 +$543 +95%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $331 −$329 -99%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? May 18 $274 +$30 +11%
Arsenal FC leading at halftime? May 18 $434 +$166 +38%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $449 +$252 +56%
Arsenal FC leading at halftime? May 10 $157 −$155 -98%
Aston Villa FC leading at halftime? May 10 $49 −$49 -99%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $197 −$195 -99%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $52 −$51 -98%
Arsenal FC leading at halftime? May 05 $101 +$120 +120%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $252 +$115 +46%
Arsenal FC leading at halftime? May 02 $220 +$201 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET May 02 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET May 02 $8 +$15 +198%
Will Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC vs. Wuhan San Zhen FC end in a draw? May 01 $241 +$26 +11%
Arsenal FC leading at halftime? Apr 30 $140 +$308 +220%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $188 −$185 -98%
Will Yunnan Yukun FC win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $76 +$9 +12%
Will ACF Fiorentina vs. US Sassuolo Calcio end in a draw? Apr 26 $194 +$18 +9%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $180 −$179 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands leading at halftime? BUY Yes 33¢ $153 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 42¢ $153 1h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 54¢ $304 1h
Brazil leading at halftime? BUY Yes 42¢ $153 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 56¢ $152 1h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 39¢ $147 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 50¢ $152 2d
Croatia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 36¢ $110 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $211 2d
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY Yes 68¢ $290 2d
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 43¢ $169 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 57¢ $231 2d
Korea Republic leading at halftime? BUY Yes 44¢ $173 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 61¢ $173 5d
Brazil leading at halftime? BUY Yes 56¢ $227 5d
Colombia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 47¢ $181 5d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $180 5d
Croatia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 50¢ $162 6d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $167 6d
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 64¢ $334 6d
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 69¢ $283 6d
Norway leading at halftime? BUY Yes 34¢ $108 7d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 45¢ $117 7d
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 51¢ $112 7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $111 7d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $156 8d
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY Yes 52¢ $142 8d
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 73¢ $330 8d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $418 9d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $197 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $883.03 · official $883.03 (match) · 118 history records