Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:05:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
A8 0xa8b9…1921 other 25 markets active 2h ago coverage 688d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$954 (-11%) realized −$954 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate56%14W / 11L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$348per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$103
7 days+$103
14 days+$103
30 days+$103
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% −$1,071
crypto 31% +$430
tech 6% −$268
other 6% −$45
world 2% −$3
politics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +143.9% +120.7% 100% 100% +120.7%
≤30d 1 +143.9% +120.7% 100% 100% +120.7%
≤90d 1 +143.9% +120.7% 100% 100% +120.7%
all 25 +0.9% -8.7% 56% 44% -19.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 44% -19.5%
10% -17.4% 36% -27.2%
15% -25.4% 32% -34.2%
20% -32.7% 32% -40.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +144% too few recent
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$505) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$183 vs −$320 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

688d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$954
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses14 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)25 / 25
History coverage688d
Avg bet$348
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 25 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 23 $72 +$103 +144%
Knicks vs. Pacers Dec 11 $1,004 −$1,004 -100%
Pacers vs. Knicks May 27 $1,005 −$1,005 -100%
Bucks vs. Heat Apr 06 $918 +$1,347 +147%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 04 $399 −$399 -100%
Lucknow Super Giants vs. Punjab Kings Apr 04 $400 −$400 -100%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 01 $200 −$200 -100%
Lakers vs. Pacers Mar 27 $100 +$97 +97%
Thunder vs. Clippers Mar 24 $505 +$484 +96%
Trump releases Epstein list today? Feb 28 $4 −$2 -46%
Will Kanye launch a coin in February? Feb 28 $1 +$2 +193%
Will Apple run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX? Feb 14 $540 −$268 -50%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k today? Nov 22 $1,832 +$291 +16%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k today? Nov 22 $892 +$139 +16%
Will France win the 3rd most medals? Aug 11 $182 −$182 -100%
Iran military response by Friday? Aug 10 $176 +$7 +4%
Olympic Basketball: USA vs. Serbia Aug 08 $166 +$9 +5%
Will France win the 3rd most gold medals? Aug 08 $50 +$25 +50%
Will Australia win the 3rd most gold medals? Aug 08 $59 +$32 +54%
Will Grant Holloway (USA) win Gold in 110m Hurdles? Aug 07 $55 −$11 -20%
Will Julien Alfred (LCA) win gold in 200m W? Aug 06 $42 −$41 -97%
Will Kamala announce VP pick on Monday? Aug 06 $34 +$8 +25%
Will Trump stream with Adin Ross on August 5? Aug 05 $31 +$2 +8%
Iran military response by Sunday? Aug 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Julien Alfred (LCA) win gold in 100m W? Aug 03 $23 +$19 +82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL No 100¢ $174 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 40¢ $72 9d
Knicks vs. Pacers BUY Knicks 45¢ $1,004 391d
Pacers vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 35¢ $1,005 395d
Bucks vs. Heat SELL Bucks 100¢ $2,265 443d
Bucks vs. Heat BUY Bucks 40¢ $918 443d
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets BUY Nuggets 56¢ $399 447d
Lucknow Super Giants vs. Punjab Kings BUY Lucknow 52¢ $400 447d
Rockets vs. Lakers BUY Rockets 45¢ $200 448d
Lakers vs. Pacers SELL Lakers 99¢ $196 453d
Lakers vs. Pacers BUY Lakers 50¢ $100 453d
Thunder vs. Clippers SELL Thunder 100¢ $989 456d
Thunder vs. Clippers BUY Thunder 51¢ $505 456d
Trump releases Epstein list today? SELL No 21¢ $2 480d
Trump releases Epstein list today? BUY No 39¢ $4 480d
Will Kanye launch a coin in February? SELL No 91¢ $3 480d
Will Kanye launch a coin in February? BUY No 31¢ $1 485d
Will Apple run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX? BUY Yes 29¢ $270 498d
Will Apple run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX? SELL No 71¢ $272 498d
Will Apple run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX? BUY No 71¢ $270 498d
Will Bitcoin hit $100k today? SELL No 76¢ $1,026 577d
Will Bitcoin hit $100k today? SELL No 76¢ $296 577d
Will Bitcoin hit $100k today? BUY No 46¢ $800 577d
Will Bitcoin hit $100k today? SELL Yes 52¢ $800 577d
Will Bitcoin hit $100k today? BUY Yes 67¢ $1,031 577d
Will Bitcoin hit $100k today? BUY No 86¢ $892 578d
Will France win the 3rd most medals? BUY Yes 76¢ $182 681d
Iran military response by Friday? SELL No 100¢ $182 682d
Iran military response by Friday? BUY No 96¢ $175 683d
Olympic Basketball: USA vs. Serbia SELL USA 99¢ $175 683d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 59 history records