Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:54:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa8b7…04a0 crypto 16 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$38 (-8%) realized −$38 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate50%8W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$119
sports 3% −$13
other 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-43.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -37.7% -43.6% 50% 25% -35.2%
≤30d 16 -37.7% -43.6% 50% 25% -35.2%
≤90d 16 -37.7% -43.6% 50% 25% -35.2%
all 16 -37.7% -43.6% 50% 25% -35.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.6% 25% -35.2%
10% -49.0% 12% -41.4%
15% -53.9% 0% -47.0%
20% -58.5% 0% -52.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 84% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -45% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$23 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$38
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses8 / 8
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage7d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 17 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $104 +$33 +32%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $30 +$10 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$11 -41%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3 $0 +15%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $10 −$7 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 11 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 11 $25 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 28 history records