trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | Yes | 98¢ | 99¢ | $760,159 | $770,401 | +$10,242 (+1%) |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 50¢ | 85¢ | $200,000 | $339,400 | +$139,400 (+70%) |
| Trump out as President by June 30? | No | 98¢ | 99¢ | $75,385 | $76,278 | +$893 (+1%) |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 50¢ | 15¢ | $200,000 | $60,600 | −$139,400 (-70%) |
| Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $56,786 | $56,872 | +$86 (+0%) |
| Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? | No | 92¢ | 57¢ | $5,375 | $3,366 | −$2,009 (-37%) |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $9 | $3 | −$6 (-70%) |
| US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? | No | 5¢ | 0¢ | $3,449 | $0 | −$3,449 (-100%) |
| Singapore vs. China PR: Both Teams to Score | No | 75¢ | 0¢ | $206 | $0 | −$206 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread: Czechia (-1.5) AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 12 | $101 | +$65 | +65% |
| Will Singapore win on 2026-06-05? | Jun 05 | $3,126 | +$164 | +5% |
| Singapore vs. China PR: Both Teams to Score | Jun 05 | $208 | −$206 | -99% |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | Jun 04 | $8,646,258 | +$33,558 | +0% |
| Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | Jun 02 | $155,515 | +$5,874 | +4% |
| Trump out as President by May 31? | Jun 01 | $426,112 | +$1,961 | +0% |
| US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? | May 31 | $3,450 | −$3,449 | -100% |
| Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? | May 19 | $94,923 | +$199 | +0% |
| Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? | May 19 | $27,452 | +$51 | +0% |
| Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? | May 19 | $33,781 | +$301 | +1% |
| Will J.D. Vance attend Trump’s Xi summit? | May 15 | $50,498 | +$613 | +1% |
| Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair? | May 14 | $219,274 | +$2,948 | +1% |
| Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? | May 14 | $360,107 | +$697,292 | +194% |
| Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? | May 14 | $82,222 | +$247 | +0% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | May 09 | $554,999 | +$556 | +0% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | +35.0% | +22.1% | 100% | 50% | -3.1% |
| ≤30d | 14 | +5.2% | -4.8% | 86% | 14% | -2.9% |
| ≤90d | 15 | +4.8% | -5.2% | 87% | 13% | -3.2% |
| all | 15 | +4.8% | -5.2% | 87% | 13% | -3.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -5.2% | 13% | -3.2% |
| 10% | -14.2% | 13% | -12.5% |
| 15% ← realistic here | -22.5% | 13% | -21.0% |
| 20% | -30.1% | 13% | -28.7% |