Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:05:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
A8 0xa8b1…d5d2 crypto 125 markets active 1h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$355 (-3%) realized −$355 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate66%83W / 42L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$110per market
Trades / day8.2pace
Fees−$75est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$75
7 days−$221
14 days−$1,110
30 days−$505
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% +$15
crypto 20% −$250
other 18% −$321
world 2% +$51
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 -12.3% -20.7% 59% 49% -24.8%
≤30d 125 -4.3% -13.5% 66% 54% -12.9%
≤90d 125 -4.3% -13.5% 66% 54% -12.9%
all 125 -4.3% -13.5% 66% 54% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 54% -12.9%
10% -21.7% 38% -21.2%
15% -29.3% 22% -28.8%
20% -36.2% 10% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$69 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$355
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses83 / 42
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$75
Open positions0
Markets (closed)125 / 125
History coverage22d
Avg bet$110
Trades / day8.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 125 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$4 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$10 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $40 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$7 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +60%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $61 −$60 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 10 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 10 $38 +$5 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 10 $29 +$10 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 10 $29 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 10 $21 +$7 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 10 $18 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 10 $14 +$5 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$4 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 10 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$6 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$17 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 10 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 10 $21 +$14 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$11 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 10 $51 −$5 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 10 $14 −$12 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 10 $41 +$12 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 10 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 10 $20 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 10 $40 −$40 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 10 $20 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$9 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 10 $40 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 10 $40 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 10 $40 +$5 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$14 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$11 +105%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Down 32¢ $6 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $40 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET SELL Down 3¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 9h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $61 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $44 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $38 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $29 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Down 77¢ $29 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $29 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $21 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $18 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $14 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 305 history records