Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:27:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa8b1…df60 other 145 markets active 2h ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$37 (-0%) realized −$37 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate16%23W / 121L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$160per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$17
14 days−$28
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 29% −$17
other 29% −$19
sports 17% −$12
world 6% $0
economics 6% −$3
crypto 6% −$3
finance 5% +$6
culture 2% −$2
tech 2% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -0.9% -10.4% 9% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 62 -0.8% -10.3% 6% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 116 -0.6% -10.0% 11% 0% -9.8%
all 144 -0.4% -9.9% 16% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized−$37
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses23 / 121
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)144 / 145
History coverage110d
Avg bet$160
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 144 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 95¢ $56 $56 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 21 $284 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $52 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $49 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 20 $20 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 20 $112 −$2 -2%
Will the Minnesota Wild be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? Jun 20 $47 −$1 -2%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 19 $70 −$1 -2%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $770 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $88 $0 -0%
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $45 −$1 -1%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 18 $25 $0 +0%
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 18 $38 −$1 -2%
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 17 $62 −$2 -2%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $101 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $48 −$1 -2%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 17 $138 −$2 -2%
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 16 $51 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 16 $50 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $252 −$1 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 15 $55 −$1 -1%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $150 $0 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $85 −$1 -1%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $56 $0 -0%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $46 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Jun 13 $292 −$1 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $786 −$1 -0%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $93 −$2 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $42 −$1 -2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 12 $39 −$1 -2%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $383 −$1 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $101 −$1 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Jun 11 $27 $0 -1%
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 10 $54 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 10 $43 −$1 -1%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 09 $68 −$2 -3%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 09 $60 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 06 $36 −$1 -1%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $58 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $241 −$1 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 05 $118 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $239 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? Jun 05 $50 −$1 -1%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 05 $173 −$1 -1%
Will Rupert Lowe be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 04 $50 $0 -1%
Will Morocco reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $47 $0 -0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $52 −$1 -1%
Will Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? Jun 03 $29 −$2 -6%
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $55 −$1 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 02 $53 $0 +0%
Will The MongolZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 02 $6 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $56 1h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $48 2h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $49 10h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $54 10h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $54 18h
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $52 19h
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $52 24h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $49 25h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $49 33h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL No 96¢ $20 33h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 96¢ $20 39h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $52 40h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $53 45h
Will the Minnesota Wild be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? SELL No 93¢ $46 46h
Will the Minnesota Wild be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? BUY No 95¢ $18 2d
Will the Minnesota Wild be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? BUY No 95¢ $29 2d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $20 2d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $20 2d
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $50 2d
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $50 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 94¢ $57 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $57 3d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $46 3d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $46 3d
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $45 3d
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $45 3d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 98¢ $25 3d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 97¢ $25 3d
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 92¢ $37 3d
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 94¢ $38 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.99 · official $55.99 (match) · 564 history records